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12/12/2024by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Estonia’s Rise as Europe’s Fintech Powerhouse

Estonia, a small Baltic country with a population of 1.4 million, is in the news for all the right reasons: its burgeoning fintech sector. With a market size of €15.2 billion in 2023 and projected growth of 5.7% CAGR from 2023 to 2028, Estonia’s number of fintech companies has increased by 23% from 2020 to 2023. The country has 264 fintech startups, half emerging between 2020 and 2022. Strategic investments in digital infrastructure, a progressive regulatory environment, and a tech-friendly culture make Estonia a leading hub for fintech innovation in Europe.

Estonia has become an important name in the fintech sector ever since its financial institutions started using fintech in the early 2000s. It has become the leading fintech hub in Europe, with 2.3 fintech unicorns (startups with a valuation exceeding US$1 billion) per million population.

Most fintech startups, accounting for 87% of all fintech companies in Estonia, fall into six categories: digital asset exchange (33%), digital lending (15%), enterprise technology provisioning (14%), digital payments (11%), wealthtech (9%), and digital capital raising (6%).

Startups dominate Estonia’s fintech landscape with fewer established companies, indicating a favorable environment for new players. Digital asset exchange services that facilitate the trade of cryptocurrencies or digital currencies for other assets form the lion’s share of these startups. This includes Tallinn-based companies such as AsicVault and Guardtime.

Finding customers is a concern for Estonia’s fintech sector

Fintech is flourishing in Estonia despite various challenges that players must navigate. Typically, these challenges affect the smallest and newest entrants to the market the most.

One of the significant challenges that businesses can expect is finding loyal customers for their solutions, according to the 2023 report by the TalTech School of Business. In their research, the respondents indicated finding customers as the most critical problem in two survey editions, 2021 and 2023.

Since Estonia has a small population of 1.4 million, the domestic market is relatively small. Businesses across sectors, including fintech, often face limitations in expanding their customer base. This can force companies to look beyond national borders to achieve significant growth, which can be difficult for new players.

Estonia’s Rise as Europe’s Fintech Powerhouse by EOS Intelligence

Rising costs are affecting smaller and newer players

The financial side poses a substantial challenge for players with limited budget planning to start and expand a fintech firm in Estonia. Estonia used to be a place of low living costs and cheap labor since its independence in 1991. However, the rising operation costs now affect the fintech landscape. A 2023 report published by the European Commission indicated that in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same period in the previous year, Estonia saw a 10.1% increase in hourly wage costs. This can harm small new players looking to enter Estonia’s fintech landscape.

Competition with Big Tech in foreign markets can challenge expansion

Estonian fintech companies attempting to expand into more mature markets can face several hurdles. For example, a high degree of sophistication and regulation characterizes the UK financial services sector, a desired expansion target, leaving little room for new entrants without an established brand presence or a solid track record.

Establishing trust is paramount for fintech startups, as consumers and businesses often prefer providers with known reputation, selecting them through word of mouth or established market presence. As a result, new entrants must devise comprehensive (and often cost-intensive) marketing strategies to overcome these initial credibility barriers.

Increased competition from established financial institutions that leverage their substantial resources to compete with startups can exacerbate these challenges. Big Tech firms such as Google, Amazon, and Apple have also begun to venture into the financial services sector. These companies possess strong brand recognition, customer trust, and rich data sets, enabling them to overshadow smaller fintech operations.

Cross-border expansion signals Estonia’s thriving fintech sector

Estonia’s cross-border expansion activities highlight its flourishing fintech sector. Fintech ranks as the second largest industry within the Estonian startup ecosystem, following business software and human resources, accounting for 13% of the nation’s startups. In terms of revenue, it also holds the second position, generating €196 million in turnover as of 2023.

Estonian fintech startups are actively pursuing opportunities beyond national borders. For instance, the financial cybersecurity firm Salv, based in Estonia, has extended its operations to Latvia and is planning further expansion to Lithuania and the UK. The firm aims to promote its AML solution, Salv Bridge, in these markets.

Additionally, in June 2024, Depowise, a startup located in Tallinn, announced its plans to expand into Ireland and the UK to enhance its market presence in the region.

Estonian fintech startups are increasingly seeking opportunities outside their home market, demonstrating the sector’s robust success and appetite for expansion.

Several catalysts are fueling the growth of Estonian fintech

Ease of doing business

The country ranks 18^th in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index, beating more developed countries such as Germany (22^nd), Canada (23^rd), and Ireland (24^th) as of 2019. This favorable business environment in the country is one of the main factors making it an attractive location for fintech businesses. According to the World Bank, the country has a highly conducive tax system, ranked 12^th in the ease of paying taxes.

Efficient corporate tax systems

Due to its efficient tax policy and straightforward tax compliance frameworks, Estonia holds the top spot in the 2023 International Tax Competitiveness Index published by Tax Foundation, a US-based think tank. This allows companies to spend considerably less time (five hours per year in Estonia compared to 42 hours per year in an average OECD country) on tax-related tasks.

The Estonian tax system also boasts a similarly low compliance burden (resources and costs associated with complying with regulatory requirements) for other taxes, including value-added tax (VAT).

The country’s corporate tax rate is 20%, but it only applies to distributed profits. This means that if a company reinvests its profits back into the business, it does not pay any corporate income tax until it distributes those profits as dividends. This has significantly encouraged reinvestment, growth, and expansion of businesses, including fintech companies.

Internet freedom

Internet freedom is robust in Estonia, and the country is known for its numerous e-government initiatives. For the past several years, Estonia has maintained the second position globally in the Freedom on the Net reports by the US-based NGO Freedom House, indicating a very high internet freedom rating in the country. This minimal restriction on online content facilitates easy information and idea transfer and helps businesses, including fintech companies, to flourish.

Cybersecurity

Though online activities have minimal restrictions, the Estonian authorities have implemented proactive measures to ensure cybersecurity. The 2020 Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) published by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) ranks Estonia as the third most cybersecure nation. This is especially beneficial for fintech companies since most of their operation is online.

Estonia is a cashless society with around 99% of transactions occurring digitally. This creates a significant demand for innovative fintech solutions. Startups and established companies take this as an opportunity and offer services such as digital wallets, payment gateways, and peer-to-peer lending, among others, to which strong cybersecurity is essential.

E-residency scheme

Estonia’s e-residency program supports fintech investments by allowing foreign entrepreneurs to establish businesses remotely without a physical office. This program provides online business owners, digital entrepreneurs, and freelancers with a digital Estonian ID, granting access to various local services such as business registration, banking, payment processing, and tax management.

Since its introduction in 2014, the e-residency program has grown significantly, with 117,000 individuals from 185 nationalities obtaining e-resident status and creating over 31,800 Estonian companies. This represents roughly one in five new companies annually and links 38% of startups to e-residents. The initiative has also contributed €244 million to Estonia’s economy, generating €67.4 million in direct revenue in 2023 alone, with associated costs of €7 million, achieving a nearly tenfold return on investment.

Regulatory sandboxes

A regulatory sandbox (RS) is a framework established by regulators that allows businesses to test new products, services, or technologies in a controlled environment for a specified time. This concept is prevalent in various sectors, including finance, transportation, and healthcare.

In March 2024, Estonia expanded its RS through the Accelerate Estonia program to support non-fintech startups, inviting a medical startup, Your Cue, and a clean energy startup, O-Innovations. While regulatory sandboxes are more common in the US fintech sector, European countries such as the UK, Poland, and Spain are also developing their own. As of October 2023, there were 14 fintech sandboxes in 12 EEA countries, including Estonia, which launched its sandbox in August 2023 but has yet to invite any fintech participants.

Technological advancements dictate the direction of development

The use of newer and more innovative technologies is on the rise. Many Estonian fintech startups now use technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), the Internet of Things (IoT), etc.

An example is Depowise, which has developed innovative AI-powered solutions to automate critical functions for financial institutions, including compliance oversight, cash flow monitoring, and digital asset safekeeping.

Companies such as Value.Space, an insurtech firm founded in Estonia and currently headquartered in London with an operating office based in Tallinn, uses deep tech (advanced technologies engaged to address and revolutionize the fields they are used in) such as InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar), AI, predictive analytics, and satellite imagery to help businesses monitor and assess the risk of damage to commercial assets.

Open banking and embedded finance are the budding trends in Estonia’s fintech solutions developments. BaaS (Banking as a Service) enables secure data sharing and collaboration between financial institutions, technology companies, and customers. Open banking facilitates the entry of new players into the Estonian market through strategic partnerships with local fintech companies. This dynamic allows fintech and technology companies to challenge traditional financial models, creating innovative customer engagement methods with financial institutions. Furthermore, open banking grants developers access to an extensive financial data repository. This accessibility has spurred the emergence of novel fintech business offerings, including budgeting applications, robo-advisors, and automated savings solutions.

Embedded finance involves fluidly incorporating financial services and products into non-financial platforms, such as e-commerce websites, mobile apps, or other digital landscapes. One of the leading examples of fintech companies in Estonia leveraging embedded finance is Inbank, which has developed a portal for solar panel installers to provide financing solutions to their customers.

Opportunities for financial cybersecurity players emerge with increasing crime

Online financial crime and money laundering protection are also gaining traction in the development of fintech solutions. This has particularly accelerated following the 2007 mass cyberattack on a range of institutions and the 2017 money laundering scandal involving Danske Bank’s Estonian branch. Since those events, Estonia has seen a surge in demand for services and products providing solutions in compliance and AML measures.

An example of a solution meeting this demand is SalvBridge, Salv’s anti-money laundering solution, which uses advanced analytics and ML to detect and prevent financial crimes in real time. It also helps financial institutions meet increasingly stringent regulatory requirements and combat money laundering effectively.

Similarly, Tallinn-based Veriff offers solutions to help reduce fraud and ensure regulation compliance. Veriff protects against identity fraud and theft by automatically verifying customer identities through an AI system that assesses various technological and behavioral factors, including facial recognition.

Serokell is another Tallinn-based R&D company offering cybersecurity solutions for fintech companies. Its solutions use functional programming, making it ideal for the complex fintech sector.

Demand for such solutions will likely continue to grow, offering lucrative opportunities for players operating and innovating in this space.

Estonia’s fintech scene is shifting towards sustainable investing

As with many other industries, sustainability and environmental awareness have entered the fintech playing field. Some players attempt to improve their sustainability score while expanding their investment portfolios to include sustainable exchange-traded funds.

Companies that operate using carbon credits and sustainability fintech players are some of the newer market entrants. An example is Grünfin, founded in 2020, which facilitates investments in sustainable stocks.

Several fintech companies are also increasingly leveraging carbon credits to enhance their sustainability practices and offer financial solutions to clients. A notable example is the partnership between XTCC, an Estonia-based company specializing in exchange-traded carbon credits, and Finmaal, a UAE-based fintech platform. This collaboration allows customers purchasing financial products, such as insurance and banking, to offset their carbon emissions at the point of sale, thus integrating sustainability measures with financial transactions.

These activities reflect a broader trend in which fintech firms are leveraging cloud technologies and financial instruments to maintain a lower carbon footprint while contributing to carbon neutrality goals. It is fair to expect that the trend of focus on the environment and sustainability will gain more traction in the future.

EOS Perspective

Estonia is emerging as a strong and resilient ground for fintech startups as well as established fintech businesses. Given the country’s favorable conditions, this growth will likely continue. Industry experts expect the market to advance further in key areas such as digital payments, blockchain technology, and AI-driven financial services.

While no single company has a dominant market share, notable players such as Wise, Guardtime, and Bolt are likely to continue strengthening their positions. These companies have the financial resources, established brand presence, and technological capabilities to drive innovation and expand their market reach. Players can also expect increased competition from established financial institutions, such as banks, which are likely to enter the space.

New players and startups can expect a better level playing field in niche fintech areas, such as financial security or climate fintech, and other related areas often working in tandem with fintech, e.g., insurtech or regtech.

With several countries, including China, Egypt, Qatar, Oman, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, banning bitcoin or other cryptocurrency mining due to high energy use and safety issues, climate fintech startups can use this opportunity to expand their operations to offer more sustainable financial solutions.

Fintech startups offering cyber protection and customer data safety are expected to grow significantly in the coming years, especially with large financial institutions such as US-based Evolve Bank & Trust experiencing cyberattacks and a subsequent data breach in 2024.

The new tax policies scheduled to take effect in 2025 will increase individual and corporate tax rates from 20% to 22%. These changes are likely to create some ripples in the fintech sector, at least in the portion of players’ profits that are not reinvested. The new tax laws may increase the operating costs for fintech companies, which could somewhat stifle innovation. This new development may curb investment, especially for small, budding players.

Over time, consolidation is likely to occur as the Estonian fintech market will head towards maturing. Larger companies may acquire smaller startups to expand their product offerings and increase their market share.

While development is rife in the global fintech sector, with its tech-savvy culture, strategic digital infrastructure investments, and progressive regulatory conditions, Estonia will likely carve out an even more prominent place in the fintech landscape.

21/11/2024by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Open Banking Sparking a Wave of Innovation in Financial Services

The adoption of open banking is leading to innovation across financial solutions such as account-to-account payments (A2A), personal finance management (PFM) apps, embedded finance, and banking-as-a-service (BaaS) by enabling real-time data-driven insights and personalized financial services. It is paving the way for a more dynamic financial landscape. Open banking has evolved rapidly since the revised Payment Services Directive (PSD2) came into force in Europe. While challenges exist, adopting open banking solutions, aided by introducing regulatory and security measures, holds the potential to revolutionize the financial services sector.

The introduction of APIs transformed banking services

Open banking has emerged as a transformative force, changing how financial data is shared, and services are offered to consumers. It securely provides third-party financial service providers access to consumer’s financial information with their consent through an application programming interface (API). It aims to foster innovation in financial services, encourage healthy competition, and give consumers more control over their banking information. Several banks across countries, including Citi, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank, have started providing access to their APIs.

Regulatory initiatives and consumer demand lead to open banking growth

While open banking has existed for a long time, it gained traction when the PSD2, a European regulation focused on creating a more open, competitive, and secure payment landscape across Europe, came into effect in 2018.

Since then, several countries have introduced open banking regulations to support its adoption. For instance, in the UK, the open banking initiative, led by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA, the UK’s principal authority responsible for strengthening business competition and preventing anti-competitive activities), became effective in 2018. In addition to the European countries, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and South Africa, among others, have introduced regulatory measures to drive the adoption of open banking.

Countries across the globe are adopting various approaches to open banking, including regulatory-led, market-led, and hybrid approaches. While Europe has taken a regulatory-led approach, adopting open banking in the USA, Canada, and China is driven by consumer demand and technological innovations. Consumers prefer to have control and transparency over their financial data. While there are currently no regulatory frameworks for open banking in the USA, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has proposed rules to protect consumer data rights, which will aid in facilitating the adoption of open banking.

Several countries, such as India, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Russia, and Singapore, have adopted a hybrid model, including both regulatory and market-led initiatives. These countries do not have mandatory open banking regimes, but policymakers are looking to introduce initiatives to accelerate open banking adoption. For instance, in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Association of Banks have published an API playbook. This publication aims to support data exchange between banks and fintech players.

The growing emphasis on introducing regulatory measures to ensure data security will likely drive the adoption of open banking.

Open Banking Sparking a Wave of Innovation in Financial Services by EOS Intelligence

Open banking is driving innovation in financial solutions

The adoption of open banking is transforming financial solutions, including A2A payments, variable recurring payments (VRP), PFM apps, BaaS, and embedded finance, by enabling faster, more convenient, secure, and personalized financial services.

A2A payments and VRP

Open banking allows secure access to real-time bank data to third-party providers, enabling process automation, speeding up A2A payment transfers, and providing a better user experience. Increasing adoption of open banking globally is expected to make international A2A payments more viable and secure.

Digital wallet platforms such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Stripe are looking to integrate open banking on their platforms to provide enhanced user experience. In September 2023, Apple soft-launched a new iPhone wallet app in the UK integrated with an open banking framework to replace traditional banking apps as the preferred platform for accessing information related to their account balance, spending history, etc.

Open banking also encourages the widespread adoption of variable recurring payments by giving consumers more transaction control and transparency. The use of variable recurring payments is expected to increase across various commercial payment services, such as utility bills, subscriptions, and insurance premiums, in the coming years.

PFM apps

Access to financial data enables PFM apps to share more effective and personalized financial advice with consumers. A real-time snapshot of the overall financial health of the consumers helps them make long-term financial decisions.

BaaS

Banking-as-a-service platforms are likely to develop due to the adoption of open banking, allowing non-banking entities to provide financial services without becoming certified banks. This offers consumers a variety of payment and credit options, as well as more personalized finance solutions, expanding the industry offering.

Integrating BaaS in retail is being explored to improve customer loyalty programs and provide seamless payments. Also, the scope of services is likely to expand rapidly, from offering banking services to individual consumers to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large corporations in the near future.

Embedded finance

Open banking has become the driving force behind the rise of embedded finance, enabling businesses and corporate clients to enhance operational efficiency and user experience. While retail and e-commerce platforms are some of the first to adopt embedded finance, the adoption is likely to increase in less digitalized spaces such as real estate as well.

Synergy with AI and blockchain offers scope for advanced innovation and security

Open banking provides a data-rich environment by aggregating data from various financial institutions for AI algorithms to analyze and utilize for decision-making. It is expected to benefit AI algorithms further by incorporating new features such as data categorization and anomaly detection in the coming years.

On the other hand, AI is likely to increase the effectiveness of open banking by analyzing individual consumer data and enabling the offering of personalized services. AI and open banking will likely help financial institutions develop innovative products.

While both AI and open banking complement their financial services, they can lead to data misuse or unauthorized access concerns, highlighting the need for strong regulatory measures to keep up with the evolution of open banking and AI.

Blockchain technology will likely become more common in open banking as it will enhance the security and transparency of financial transactions. It will likely reduce the risk of data breaches and unauthorized access to consumers’ finances. Additionally, it will likely make it easier for consumers to share their data by simplifying the authentication and consent processes.

Open banking services have expanded from basic payment initiation to open finance

The open banking framework has evolved from basic account information and payment initiation services to open finance, including access to data from various accounts, including savings, investments, pensions, insurance, and mortgages.

Countries such as India, South Korea, Australia, and Brazil have moved from open banking to open finance to develop a more connected financial ecosystem. In February 2024, South Korea also introduced two initiatives focused on including business data and providing offline open banking services.

In Europe, the European Commission is also pushing towards open finance by introducing the Financial Data Access (FiDA) regulation, a framework to enable secured sharing and access of financial data.

Open banking will diversify consumer options, with non-financial companies such as telecom providers, e-commerce platforms, and utility companies offering innovative financial products. They will likely enter into partnerships with banks to provide integrated services to consumers, enhancing their offerings and creating an interconnected financial ecosystem.

Lack of standardized APIs affects the open banking adoption

While open banking is gaining traction, specific challenges, such as lack of standardized APIs, integration with legacy systems, privacy compliance, and data security, are affecting its adoption.

The lack of standardization of APIs across financial institutions is the key challenge in adopting open banking. Third-party providers are usually unable to adapt to different APIs and provide seamless data sharing between systems.

Various financial institutions also face difficulty integrating open banking into their legacy systems, making the integration process complex and expensive. Banks must first update their systems by investing in technology upgrades and partnering with fintech solutions providers to overcome integration challenges.

As the adoption of open banking increases, the chances of data breaches might also increase, highlighting the need to protect customer data and compliance with privacy regulations. Banks are looking to adopt measures such as encryption, clear usage policies, and regular audits to protect customer data. The European Union has also put regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) in place to protect customer data and improve the digital security of financial institutions. Advanced security measures solutions, including tokenization and dedicated API gateways, can also help safeguard customer data.

Lack of awareness among consumers is another key challenge. Users are often unaware of open banking and are reluctant to share their financial data due to privacy concerns. Initiatives aimed at educating the users about security and regulatory norms related to open banking by banks can help overcome this challenge and drive adoption.

EOS Perspective

The shift to an open banking model can transform the future of digital banking. The key driving factors for the users are the ease and clarity of the interface, which are likely to replace the traditional banking infrastructure and ownership of consumer data.

The expected introduction of PSR1 in 2026 will likely improve competition and consumer protection in the payments market, which will likely drive the adoption of open banking. PSR1 will help enhance fraud prevention, improve consumer rights and protection, standardize payment regulations, and enhance open banking functions.

The introduction of regulatory and security measures and growing awareness about open banking and its benefits are also likely to aid this growth. A phased implementation of open banking will help with greater adoption of open banking by gradually introducing the concept to the consumers and helping them adapt.

Open banking will benefit banks by providing better customer insights, encouraging innovation, and creating an additional revenue stream through API monetization. However, increasing competition from fintech and non-financial institutions entering the market will likely pressure banks to transition to open banking. The shift to open finance will further increase the competition in the industry. We will likely witness banks entering partnerships with fintech players to develop and offer innovative financial services for their consumers.

The financial sector is embracing open banking as a means to offer creative and innovative financial solutions to enrich the user experience. Open banking will likely evolve into a broad ecosystem of connected services, streamlining the consumers’ products, services, and applications into one, providing a seamless experience.

22/08/2024by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

What’s Fueling Asia’s Drive to Develop Wholesale CBDCs?

The emergence of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) has become a central focus in the global financial space, as it offers the potential for revolutionary shifts in how the world conducts and manages monetary transactions. While much of the spotlight has been on retail CBDCs, wholesale CBDCs are gaining momentum globally. Asia is leading the pack in developing wholesale CBDCs that offer opportunities that may significantly impact the global financial landscape.

Asia is outpacing developed countries in the drive toward wholesale CBDCs

Wholesale CBDCs are digital forms of a country’s fiat currency. Unlike retail CBDCs, only a limited number of entities can access wholesale CBDCs, which are designed for undertaking interbank transactions and settlements. The concept of wholesale CBDCs is similar to currently available digital assets used for the settlement of interbank transactions, with the key differentiation being the use of technologies such as distributed ledger technology (DLT) and tokenization.

Wholesale CBDCs have garnered global interest with central banks. Facebook’s (albeit failed) attempt to launch its Libra cryptocurrency in 2019 was a breaking point for blockchain technology’s use in global finance, eventually spurring the development of wholesale CBDCs. Initially launched as a measure to counter private cryptocurrencies, wholesale CBDCs are fast emerging as a potential disruptor in the fintech space.

Currently, more than 30 countries are researching the use of wholesale CBDCs. Interestingly, about half of these countries are from Asia. The development of wholesale CBDCs in Asian countries has outpaced the efforts of financially strong economies such as the USA and the UK, as these CBDCs offer more tangible benefits to developing economies in Asia than their more developed counterparts.

Several Asian countries have engaged in pilot programs, and proof-of-concept runs to explore the use of wholesale CBDCs to improve the efficiency of domestic large-value transactions and cross-border transfers.

China has been at the forefront of the development and widespread testing of wholesale CBDCs. Several Southeast Asia and the Middle East countries, including India, the UAE, Thailand, and Singapore, have launched pilot programs to explore the viability of wholesale CBDCs and test interoperability for cross-border transactions.

Achieving faster and cheaper cross-border transactions is key to Asian central banks

Growth in global trade has resulted in exponential growth in cross-border transaction volumes. However, these cross-border transactions are faced with challenges. There may be involvement of potential intermediaries, varying time zones, and regulatory frictions that may cause slower settlement. Financial systems such as SWIFT have a stranglehold on the cross-border transaction ecosystem, with many of these transactions using SWIFT messaging to settle payments.

Potential intermediary fees and forex-related charges also lead to increased transaction costs. According to World Bank’s estimates, transaction costs for cross-border transactions may range up to 6% of the transfer value, a significant surcharge.

Removing friction associated with cross-border transactions is a key goal behind Asian countries’ push toward exploring wholesale CBDCs.

A growing interest in wholesale CBDCs is attracting investments in building large-value payment infrastructures in Asia, allowing for faster and more efficient cross-border transfers. Wholesale CBDCs enable central banks to transact directly with each other, removing the involvement of multiple intermediaries and resulting in quicker transaction settlement. This also results in the elimination of intermediary fees to help lower transaction costs.

Technology also adds elements of security and traceability to these digital transactions. It also offers the potential to program them by automating or restricting payments if certain conditions are met.

Challenging US dollar dominance in cross-border settlements offers additional motivation

Several Asian countries are also looking to reduce their reliance on financial settlement systems that involve US dollar reserves. Currently, most cross-border transactions involve the use of the US dollar. Countries with limited forex reserves also face the challenge of outgoing reserves, resulting in potential currency inflation and adding to the already high transaction costs.

Wholesale CBDCs offer several Asian countries, particularly those with limited US dollar reserves, an opportunity to directly transfer the amount in their local digital currencies and eliminate the need for US dollars in bilateral transactions.

Developing Asian economies, such as China and India, with significant cross-border transactions, are looking to promote their CBDCs as a potential reserve currency in the Asian region that would allow cross-border settlement directly in the digital currency. It is also in the interests of countries such as China to develop its CBDC (e-CNY) as a potential alternative to the US Dollar in cross-border trade to mitigate any potential currency-related challenges posed by economic sanctions from the USA and EU.

What’s Fueling Asia’s Drive to Develop Wholesale CBDCs by EOS Intelligence

Tandem development and collaborations offer tailwinds to CBDC projects in Asia

Central banks of several Asian countries are undertaking information sharing and tandem development of CBDC infrastructures to mitigate some challenges associated with CBDC.

Recent pilot projects such as mBridge, launched by central banks of China, the UAE, Thailand, and Hong Kong, have been testing the use of a common ledger platform for real-time peer-to-peer transactions. The launch of several other projects, such as Project Mandala (involving Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia) and Project Aber (involving Saudi Arabia and the UAE), is laying the groundwork for the widespread implementation of wholesale CBDCs.

Another potential avenue for collaboration includes forming partnerships with central banks to maintain reserves of digital cash to facilitate direct settlement. China, in particular, plans to develop e-CNY as a potential reserve currency alternative to the US dollar.

Interoperability and ownership are key challenges to CBDC implementation

While the use of wholesale CBDCs certainly comes forward as a boon, there are challenges in using these technology-driven digital currencies. CBDCs may have varying protocols, and interoperability between different CBDC frameworks remains a key challenge for implementing wholesale CBDCs for cross-border transactions.

Establishing common technical and operational standards is essential to ensure CBDC interoperability. Currently, most pilot programs involve CBDCs with common or similar technological frameworks and rules, which limit the application of wholesale CBDCs to a certain number of compatible entities.

Recent research projects are laying the groundwork for CBDCs’ compatibility with various ledgers and technical frameworks. However, significant testing will be required before compatibility can be established across the Asian region.

Ownership, governance, and regulatory oversight of wholesale CBDC technologies are other key concerns. Doubts exist over who will oversee the transactions and ledger entries, especially for any multi-party cross-border transaction.

Systems must also to adhere to anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulations. Varying financial laws may also hamper the seamless implementation of these anti-money laundering and counter-threat funding regulations across the region.

Lastly, like any digital asset, CBDCs are also susceptible to cyberattacks.

EOS Perspective

Wholesale CBDCs can potentially change the nature of cross-border transactions across Asia and globally.

We are likely to witness significant growth in test runs and pilot programs by several Asian countries to provide proof of concept for the applicability of wholesale CBDCs in countering the challenges associated with cross-border transactions. We can expect a spurt in CBDC alliances and treaties among countries with significant bilateral and intra-regional trade. Simultaneously, it may result in slightly reduced transaction volumes going through existing cross-border financial systems such as SWIFT.

The next stage of CBDC evolution is likely to coincide with the emergence of pilot programs involving multiple CBDCs with different technological frameworks, creating possibilities for easier and seamless cross-border transactions among banks or countries without any existing bilateral or regional partnerships.

These developments are likely to be aided by the development of enabling technologies such as RegTech (regulatory technologies) and SupTech (supervisory technologies), which could provide the sandbox environment for widespread testing of the CBDC systems, as well as lay the groundwork for potential regulatory systems to manage these infrastructures.

With the bulk of cross-border transactions still being conducted in the US dollar, wholesale CBDCs do not pose any imminent threat to its dominance. The US dollar’s future prospects in this role will depend on whether digital currencies such as e-CNY take off as a reserve currency, which is unlikely, at least in the short- to medium-term.

The overall success of wholesale CBDCs will depend on the level of cooperation that countries across Asia can develop over the next few years.

P2P Lending Needs More than Just an Appetite for Investment by EOS Intelligence

02/04/2024by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

P2P Lending Needs More than Just an Appetite for Investment to Sustain Its Growth

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Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has emerged as a global financial phenomenon. It has revolutionized the way individuals access loans. The innovation of P2P lending has experienced varying degrees of success and turbulence in different regions, notably India, China, and the USA. Understanding the reasons behind the rise and fall of P2P lending across these major markets provides critical insights into the global dynamics of this industry.

P2P lending – good old loans with a modern take

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending is giving loans through an online platform that connects lenders and borrowers to exchange goods, services, or money directly by eliminating traditional intermediaries such as banks. Financial technology facilitates P2P lending, directly connecting individuals or businesses with investors.

Lenders and borrowers need to register with a P2P platform before conducting any transactions. The registration entails an AI-based evaluation of the borrowers to assess their credit score, employment details, income, and credit history. It also monitors their social media activities, including usage patterns and interactions. Using these assessments, the borrowers’ creditworthiness is determined, categorizing them into various risk tiers and informing the interest rates offered.

Subsequently, lenders can make informed decisions about lending money based on borrowers’ assessed scores. This empowers them to select suitable borrowers and enables borrowers to choose appropriate lenders. The P2P platform charges fees from both parties for its services instead of deriving profit from monthly installments.

To mitigate fraudulent activities, certain regulatory bodies oversee these platforms to ensure compliance with regulations and maintain transparency. For example, P2P lending in the USA is regulated at the federal and state levels. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) oversees the investors of the P2P lending platforms, while the Federal Trade Commission and the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau oversee the borrowers. In India, all P2P lending platforms must register as Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFC)-P2P Lenders with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The global P2P lending market is expected to reach US$705.81 billion by 2030 up from US$83.79 billion in 2021, at a 26.7% CAGR during 2022-2030, according to Precedence Research.

In addition to the increasing demand for financial services, factors such as lower operating fees compared to traditional financial services, quicker loan approvals, and the adoption of digitization in the banking sector drive the growth of the P2P lending market.

P2P Lending Needs More than Just Appetite for Investment by EOS Intelligence

China’s P2P lending – started strong but faced a downturn

China’s P2P lending industry witnessed speedy development since 2007. There were 3,383 P2P lending platforms running in China with around RMB 130 billion (~US$18.2 billion) in combined monthly transactions in January 2016, as per the Home of Online Lending, an organization that collects and assembles P2P data from various sources in China. Founded in August 2007, PPDai or Paipaidai, currently known as FinVolution Group, was the first online P2P lending platform in China. PPDai was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in November 2017.

However, this burgeoning growth of the P2P lending industry in China was unsustainable and short-lived. This was evident from the fact that out of 6,607 P2P lending platforms, 6,277 were closed and problematic, leaving only 330 P2P lending platforms in business in China as of August 2020, as per the Home of Online Lending. As of August 2020, the lenders of the collapsed P2P lending industry of China owed depositors US$115 billion.

There were several Ponzi schemes related to untrustworthy P2P lending platforms enticing potential investors with attractive bonuses for referring family and friends, as reported by the Chinese media by the end of 2015. For example, in early 2015, Ezubao, with 900,000 investors, went bust when it turned out to be a Ponzi scheme with US$9 billion. Some P2P platforms were found creating fictional information about the borrowers in order to create groups of assets, and these platforms utilized funds to fulfill their own business requirements.

Although until early 2016, no regulatory authorities were overseeing P2P platforms in the country, it was believed that the Chinese government was observing the industry closely. Three bodies (The China Banking Regulatory Commission regulating P2P lending business, the Central Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supervising the telecom business of P2P lending, and the Cyber Administration of China developing rules, managing administrative licenses, and control over internet regulation and censorship in China) together announced the Interim Measures on Administration of the Business Activities of Peer-to-Peer Lending Information Intermediaries (“Interim Measures”) in August 2016.

Interim Measures became China’s first regulatory framework for the P2P lending industry. According to the Measures, a P2P lending platform’s scope of business in China is limited to acting as lending information intermediaries. As per the new rules, P2P lending platforms were mandated to establish custodian accounts with registered financial institutions for investor and borrower funds previously held by them. This was done to decrease the risks associated with situations when P2P lending platform owners flee with the investors’ money.

Interim Measures also mandated that P2P lending platforms register with the local financial regulatory body. The Measures provided P2P lending platform owners with a twelve-month timeline for implementing all the mandates. However, there was a delay in the implementation, as the registration and rectification processes were scheduled to be completed by June 2018, but they were not complete as of August 2018.

The exponential growth of P2P lending platforms in China resulted in several crashes due to cash shortfalls, defaults, frauds, and closures, causing massive financial losses for lenders. Such market scandals made it difficult for investors and borrowers in China to survive. They presented difficulties in acquiring financial resources, and the platforms faced a situation where investors started withdrawing their investments, thus bringing about the ultimate crash of the P2P lending industry in China.

Indian P2P lending – bright future fueled by regulators

P2P lending started in early 2014 in India. However, it began gaining significance in September 2017 when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to regulate P2P lending in the country.

People in India started using online platforms to borrow and lend funds to various untapped markets characterized by less developed infrastructure and lower investment activity. The method of borrowing changed over time. Borrowers who found it difficult to access credit from financial institutions were borrowing money from relatives, friends, acquaintances, lenders, colleagues, and business partners. The revolution took place via the intervention of digital ways of funding the credit ecosystem.

In September 2017, RBI introduced regulatory guidelines that ensured P2P lending through non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). In October 2017, RBI published a different framework for the P2P lending platforms. RBI categorized these rules as NBFC-P2P. The regulatory norms have enabled P2P lending platforms to create adaptable lending and borrowing models, including the development of flexible loan tenures, interest rate structures, and more.

Later, in 2018, RBI published a list comprising names of the first five companies registered with NBFC-P2P lending. The registration list helped ensure a secure, regulated sector and protect the interests of lenders and borrowers. RBI, in one of its regulations, mentioned a cap of Rs.5,000,000 (~US$60,000), which means if lenders invest money above Rs.1,000,000 (~US$12,000) across P2P platforms, they are required to submit a certificate from a practicing Chartered Accountant certifying a minimum net worth of Rs.5,000,000. This also means that the borrower must certify the difference between their assets and liabilities to show their financial strength. The introduction of the cap discouraged many lenders from giving out big loans.

According to RBI, fund transfers between participants on the P2P lending platform should be made through the escrow account mechanism. This means that all transactions will be processed via bank accounts, and cash transactions are strictly prohibited.

RBI mandated that P2P lending platforms be members of the Credit Information Companies, entities that maintain credit-related information about businesses and individuals. This regulation by RBI was welcomed by P2P platforms but separated less powerful players from the P2P market. The inclusion of rules has brought higher transparency, credibility, and stability to P2P lending. However, they have also increased the operation cost for P2P lending platforms and decreased the activities of lenders and borrowers.

All these changes have helped borrowers obtain loans more easily and protected lenders from fraudulent activities. According to IndustryARC, India’s P2P lending market is predicted to reach US$10.5 billion with a CAGR of 21.6% between 2021 and 2026. Market transparency in P2P lending, facilitated by technologies such as blockchain and smart contracts, has contributed to the growth of the P2P lending market.

Government promotion of cashless technology in P2P lending has reshaped the financial sector, gaining significant momentum over the past years. The introduction of AI and machine learning, along with RBI norms, has created a more secure marketplace for investors and borrowers. Innovations and new players in the P2P market are expected to impact the growth of P2P lending in the future.

P2P lending in the USA – star performer driven by technologies

The P2P lending market shows significant growth in the North American market with a larger size, higher revenue, and rapid growth. Several platforms, such as Lending Club (founded in 2006) and Prosper (founded in 2005), supported the growth of the P2P lending market in the USA by making P2P lending easy and secure. These platforms helped in attracting a large number of borrowers and investors. In the USA, the adoption of mobile and digital technologies such as Venmo, which was acquired by PayPal in 2013, and Squash Cash increased customer interest in digital transfer capabilities.

The USA has achieved remarkable success in P2P lending compared to other countries, partially due to the implementation of various payment technologies, including the EMV (Europay, Mastercard, and Visa) smart payment card protocol used as an electronic payment method. This success can be attributed to the presence of adequate legal frameworks and well-defined strategies for generating revenue.

One contributing factor to the rise of P2P lending in the USA has been the emergence and growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs actively involved in P2P lending activities). These platforms helped reduce the cost of office setups, maintenance, staffing, etc., and thus helped boost the growth of P2P lending.

One of the reasons behind the increase in the P2P lending market was the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. At a time when major businesses and organizations were facing difficulties regarding finance and operations, P2P lending platforms helped them to raise funds for their operations through online lending platforms such as i2iFunding, Faircent, Lendbox, etc., allowing a direct lending process without the involvement of third-party participants, such as banks.

Technological advancements, such as blockchain, are another reason behind the increase in the P2P lending market in the USA. They eliminated the need for physical branches and reduced operational costs. They reached global audiences such as individuals and businesses in underserved or remote areas. They also helped in reducing the risk of fraud and improve financial transactions. Undoubtedly, the P2P lending market is growing largely thanks to the adoption of new technologies.

EOS Perspective

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has shown distinct trends in India, China, and the USA. India and China witnessed a decline in their P2P lending markets due to regulatory hurdles aimed at addressing issues such as fraud and investor protection. Conversely, the USA experienced a surge in P2P lending activities. This uptick can be attributed to a well-established regulatory framework and a sustained appetite for alternative lending solutions. P2P lending platforms in the USA have been able to offer borrowers access to credit while providing appealing investment opportunities to lenders, all while adhering to regulatory standards.

Many new developments in P2P lending are helping the platforms become successful. One such development is the integration of decentralized finance (DeFi), a financial technology that works on a secure distributed ledger. The DeFi technology, born in 2018, aims to create a transparent, open, and permissionless financial system operating on blockchain networks such as Bitcoin or Ethereum.

DeFi in the USA empowers individuals with P2P digital exchange by challenging the centralized financial system by eliminating banks’ fees and other charges. DeFi allows a P2P lending platform to access a global pool of liquidity (which means a collection of digital assets to enable trading on DeFi), reduces costs and risks, and offers more flexible and customized products.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will continue to be the solutions that transform P2P lending with better data analysis, credit scoring, risk assessments, and fraud detection capabilities. AI will also allow for efficient and more personalized services to both lenders and borrowers.

Regulatory authorities, with their frameworks, have saved several platforms from data breaches, tax compliance issues, consumer protection concerns, and cyberattacks. These authorities, together with industrial associations, will continue to create innovative and adaptive solutions such as sandbox programs (a time-bound, controlled, and live testing environment involving parameters within which the firm must operate).

Looking at the history of some of the key P2P lending markets, it is evident that creating a more robust, secure, and dependable P2P lending ecosystem necessitates technological innovations and establishing a practical regulatory framework to ensure the safety of financial activities.

15/02/2024by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

eNaira: Is It Here to Stay or Are Nigerians Going to Say ‘Nay’?

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Although Nigeria boasts about its digital currency launch, there are contradictory opinions about eNaira’s subsequent adoption. The eNaira has the potential to impact Nigeria’s economy positively, however, it is not possible without its widespread acceptance.

CBDC – A global picture

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is virtual currency or money issued and controlled by a country’s central bank. According to the Atlantic Council, a leading US-based think tank, 130 countries were considering a CBDC as of September 2023, while only 35 countries were exploring a CBDC as of May 2020. This steep rise in the number of countries considering CBDC in a span of just over three years shows an increasing interest in CBDC across the globe. Even more so, some 64 countries are already in an advanced phase of exploration of the currency (development, pilot, or launch phase).

Among the G20 countries, 19 are in the advanced stage of developing CBDC, and 9 out of these 19 G20 countries are in the pilot phase. There are some 11 countries that have launched a CBDC. China’s CBDC is in the pilot stage and is presently reaching 260 million people taking part in this pilot while being tested in more than 200 scenarios, including e-commerce, public transit, and stimulus payments. In Europe, the European Central Bank is currently on course to start its pilot for CBDC, the digital euro.

More than 20 other countries are stepping towards piloting their digital currency in 2023. Countries such as Australia, Thailand, and Russia plan on continuing pilot testing. Brazil and India intend to launch their CBDC in 2024.

eNaira – A choice or compulsion?

eNaira is Nigeria’s digital currency, issued and regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for retail use. It is a liability of the CBN, similar to coins and cash.

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are similar to eNaira in terms of the underlying Bitcoin technology. Apart from this, both cryptocurrencies and eNaira are stored in digital wallets and can be used for payments and digital transfers across the globe to anyone with an eNaira account at no cost.

However, what makes eNaira different from Bitcoin or Ethereum is that the CBN has access rights controls over the Nigerian digital currency. Secondly, the eNaira is not a financial asset but rather a digital form of the physical naira, to which it is pegged at parity.

With the release of eNaira in October 2021, Nigeria became the first country in the African continent and second in the world after the Bahamas to launch a CBDC. Major motivations behind launching CBDC in Nigeria included encouraging financial inclusion, improving cross-border transactions, complementing the current payment systems, and enabling diaspora remittances. However, the adoption of eNaira has been low, with only 0.5% of the Nigerian population using CBDC within a year of its launch.

In a rather desperate move to compel its people to adopt eNaira, the government caused cash shortages in the country. This resulted in protests, riots, and unrest among Nigerians. As a result of the currency shortages in early 2022, Nigeria witnessed a 12-fold increase in the number of e-Naira wallets to 13 million since October 2021.

As of July 2023, the value of transactions had also seen a 63% rise to N22 billion (US$48 million) since its launch in October 2021. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 98.5% of the eNaira wallets were inactive one year after the launch of the CBDC, meaning 98.5% of eNaira wallets have not been used even once during any given week. These low levels of activity mirror the low public adoption of eNaira.

eNaira Is It Here to Stay or Are Nigerians Going to Say ‘Nay’ by EOS Intelligence

Motivations to launch eNaira: Strong enough to sustain adoption?

CBN conceived multiple advantages of adopting eNaira, such as fostering financial inclusion, facilitating remittances, and minimizing informality in the economy. These serve as motivations for launching eNaira and are expected to take shape with the eNaira becoming more widespread along with strong support of the regulatory system.

Fostering financial inclusion

Currently, eNaira can be used by people with bank accounts, but the idea is to expand the coverage to anyone with a mobile phone, even if they do not have a bank account. Around 38% of the adult population in Nigeria do not have bank accounts. If this section of the adult population could be provided with access to eNaira through mobile phones, Nigeria could potentially achieve 90% financial inclusion.

Facilitating remittances

Nigeria is one of the Sub-Saharan African countries that receives considerable remittances. In 2019, Nigeria received US$24 billion in remittances, which are usually made through international money transfer operators. These operators charge around 1-5% of the value of the transaction as their fee. One of the motivations for launching eNaira is to reduce the costs associated with remittance transfers.

Minimizing informality in the economy

With more than half of the economy being informal, it becomes imperative for the Nigerian government to introduce a digital currency across the country to reduce the informality in the economy and increase the country’s tax revenues. Therefore, eNaira was launched in Nigeria to strengthen the tax base along with obtaining higher transparency in informal payments.

Can Nigeria overcome implementation challenges to spur eNaira adoption?

It comes as no surprise that Nigeria is facing a range of adoption barriers on its journey to eNaira’s widespread implementation. Apart from perceptual barriers such as considering eNaira wallets as deposits at the central bank, which might decrease the demand for deposits in commercial banks, there are cybersecurity risks and operational barriers linked to eNaira. These adoption barriers to Nigeria’s CBDC include a combination of factors such as lack of required tech infrastructure, lack of training of bank personnel managing the process, trust issues, and electricity and internet issues.

Lack of tech infrastructure

The CBN is looking to revamp the technological platform used for eNaira and was in talks for that with a company called R3 in early 2023. CBN is contemplating having complete control over the platform, while eNaira was initially developed in collaboration with a fintech multinational called Bitt. The change of technology platform vendor in less than two years might suggest a lack of vision of CBN regarding the technological infrastructure necessary for the seamless adoption of eNaira.

Lack of training

The CBN is expected to oversee the ledger and manage the system, while other financial institutions, such as banks, are to provide users with access to CBDC wallets. The bank staff is required to onboard users to the eNaira platform. However, it is observed that the bank staff is not sufficiently trained to be able to seamlessly bring users on board. This, in turn, negatively impacts the adoption of CBDC.

Trust issues

Nigeria has been considered a country with high money laundering and terrorist organizations funding risk (ML/TF). In February 2023, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global money laundering and terrorism funding inspection organization, put Nigeria on its grey list owing to Nigeria not having adequate measures to curb such activities. Similarly, Basel Institute of Governance, a non-profit organization focused on improving governance and preventing corruption and other financial crimes, in its 2022 global ranking on ML/TF risks, placed Nigeria 17^th out of 128 countries, a high spot indicating a significant risk of ML/TF.

In the current design of CBDC in Nigeria, the CBN is equipped to monitor all users’ transactions using eNaira, potentially allowing it to detect and curb ML/TF activities and improve Nigeria’s standing in the risk rankings. However, this has turned out to be a double-edged sword in implementing eNaira. The high level of supervision of all transactions has brought apprehension amongst potential users in Nigeria, most of whom believe that eNaira was developed by the government to monitor the monetary transactions, breaching their right to privacy and potentially giving the government a tool to control them. This lack of trust significantly hampers the adoption of the CBDC in Nigeria.

Electricity and internet issues

With around 92 million people not having access to power in a population of 200 million, Nigeria has one of the lowest electricity access rates globally, as per the Energy Progress Report 2022 published by Tracking SDG 7. At the same time, the internet penetration in Nigeria stands at 55.4% in 2023. Seamless internet connectivity and power access are some of the critical prerequisites for the smooth implementation of the eNaira in Nigeria.

What would give eNaira adoption a much-needed push?

As the challenges to widespread adoption of the eNaira are multipronged, finding solutions to overcome the implementation challenges is not easy or quick.

One of the main infrastructural challenges, inadequate power and internet access, should be among the first to be addressed. One way to approach it is to create offline access to the eNaira platform. To achieve this, the CBN launched the Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) code for eNaira, meaning that Nigerians without internet-enabled phones can perform transactions with eNaira.

To facilitate rapid and seamless adoption of the eNaira, the CBN must make the CBDC available to everyone with a mobile phone. More and more people should be encouraged to use eNaira by incentivizing them through rebates while paying income tax. Another incentive example dates back to October 2022 when CBN offered discounts if people used eNaira to pay for cabs.

EOS Perspective

The eNaira has the potential to have a significant impact on the Nigerian economy. As transactions using eNaira are fully traceable, more widespread adoption of eNaira is expected to expand the country’s tax base by bringing higher transparency in payments, especially in informal markets. It will undoubtedly result in higher tax revenue, a development welcomed by the government.

With US$24 billion in remittance receipts in 2019, Nigeria is considered one of the key remittance destinations in Sub-Saharan Africa. As remittances are currently burdened with a 1-5% charge of the transaction value, removing these costs through the adoption of eNaira would bring more remittance income to the population and, indirectly, more capital to the Nigerian economy.

With the expanded tax base, cheaper and higher inflows of remittances, facilitated retail payments, welfare transfers, etc., the impact of the eNaira on the Nigerian economy is likely to be quite considerable. Indeed, at the time of launch, the CBN estimated that the eNaira should increase Nigeria’s GDP by US$29 billion over the first 10 years, contributing to the country’s economic growth and development. With the implementation challenges encountered so far, it is clear that these estimations were overly optimistic. Still, how well the CBN can do its homework and undertake well-directed steps to navigate the challenges remains to be seen.

11/07/2019by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Africa’s Fintech Market Striding into New Product Segments

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Fintech is certainly not a new concept in the African region. More than that: Africa has been a global leader in mobile money transfer services for some time. The market continues to evolve and the regional fintech players are now moving beyond just basic payment services to offer extended services, such as credit scoring, agricultural finance, etc. With Africa being significantly unbanked and still lacking financial infrastructure, fintech industry is at a unique position to bridge the gap between consumer needs and available financial solutions.

The African subcontinent is much behind many economies when it comes to financial inclusion and banking infrastructure owing to low levels of investment, under-developed infrastructure, and low financial literacy ratio. As per World Bank estimates, only about 20% of the population in the sub-Saharan African region have a bank account as compared with 92% of the population in advanced economies and 38% in low-middle income economies.

This gap in the formal banking footprint has been largely plugged by the fintech sector in Africa, especially with regards to mobile payments. While in the developed economies, the fintech sector focuses on disrupting the incumbent banking system by offering better services and lower costs, in Africa it has the advantage of building and developing financial infrastructure. This is clear in the uptake of mobile fintech by the African population, making Africa a global leader in mobile payments and money transfers.

While in the developed economies, the fintech sector focuses on disrupting the incumbent banking system by offering better services and lower costs, in Africa it has the advantage of building and developing financial infrastructure.

However, mobile payments have simply been the first phase in the development of digital finance in Africa. The penetration and mass acceptance of mobile wallets have opened doors for the next phase of digital financial services in Africa. These include lending and insurance, agricultural finance, and wealth management.

Moreover, owing to the success achieved by mobile wallets, global investors are keenly investing in fintech start-ups that are innovating in the sector. For instance, Venture capital firm, Village Capital, partnered with Paypal to set up a program named Fintech Africa 2018. The program aims to support start-ups across Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania, which provide financial services beyond mobile payments (especially in the field of insurtech, alternative credit scoring, and fintech solutions for agriculture, energy, education, and health).

Agricultural finance

Agriculture is the livelihood of more than half of Africa’s workforce, however, due to limited access to finance and technologies, most farmers operate much below their potential capabilities. Due to this, Africa homes about 60% of the world’s non-cultivated tillable land.

However, in recent years, several established fintech players as well as start-ups have built solutions to provide financial support to the region’s agricultural sector.

In late 2018, Africa’s leading mobile wallet company, Cellulant, launched Agrikore, a blockchain-based digital-payment, contracting, and marketplace system that connects small farmers with large commercial customers. The company started its operations from Nigeria and is expected to commence business in Kenya in the second half of 2019.

Under their business model, when a large commercial order is placed on the platform, it is automatically broken into smaller quantities and shared with farmers on the platform (based on their capacity and proximity). Once the farmer accepts the order for the set quantity offered to him, the platform connects the farmer with registered transporters, quality inspectors, etc., who all log their activities on the blockchain and are paid through Cellulant’s digital wallets. All this is done on a blockchain to ensure transparency.

Another Nigeria-based company, Farmcrowdy, has been revolutionizing financing in Nigeria’s local agriculture sector by connecting small-scale farmers with farm sponsors (from Nigeria as well as other regions), who invest in farm cycles. Farmers benefit by receiving advice and training on best agriculture practices in addition to the financial support. Sponsors and farmers receive a pre-set percentage of the profits on the harvest in that cycle. In December 2017, the company received US$1 million seed investment from a group of venture capitalists including Cox Enterprises, Techstars Ventures, Social Capital, Hallett Capital, and Right-Side Capital, as well as five angel investors.

In addition to these, there are several other players, such as Kenya-based Twiga Foods (that connects rural farmers to urban retailers in an informal market), Kenya-based Tulaa (that provides famers with access to inputs such as seeds and fertilizers, as well as to finance, and markets through an m-commerce marketplace), Kenya-based, FarmDrive (that helps small farmers access credit from local banks through the use of data analytics), etc.

While most ventures in this space are currently based in Nigeria and Kenya, the sector is expected to grow significantly in the near future and is likely to expand into other parts of Africa as well.

In terms of expected trends in services development, with growing number of solutions and in turn apps, it is likely that consumers will tilt towards all-inclusive offerings, i.e. apps that provide solutions across the entire agricultural value chain.

Alternative credit scoring and lending

Large number of Africans have limited access to finance and formal lending options. Since there is a limited number of bank accounts in use, most people do not have a formal credit history and the cost of credit risk assessment remains high. Due to this, large portion of the population resorts to peer-to-peer lending or loans from Savings and Credit Cooperative Organizations (SACCOs), usually at rates higher than the market rate.

Fintech sector has been working towards reducing the cost of credit risk assessment through the use of big data and machine learning. It uses information about a person’s mobile phone usage, payment data, and several other such parameters, which are available in abundance, to calculate credit score for the individual.

Several companies, such as Branch International, have been following a similar model, wherein, through their app, they analyze the information on customer’s phone to assess their credit worthiness. On similar lines, Tala (which currently operates in Kenya), collates about 10,000 data points on a customer’s mobile phone to determine the user’s credit score.

Fintech sector has been working towards reducing the cost of credit risk assessment through the use of big data and machine learning. It uses information about a person’s mobile phone usage, payment data, and several other such parameters, which are available in abundance, to calculate credit score for the individual.

Other business models include a crowdfunding platform, on which individuals from across the world can offer small loans to local African entrepreneurs. Kiva, a global crowd lending platform, has been partnering with several companies across Africa over the past decade (such as Zoona for Zambia and Malawi in 2012) for providing financial support to entrepreneurs. Kiva vets the entrepreneurs eligible for the loan and the loan is repaid over a period of time. Post that lenders can either withdraw the amount or retain it with the company to support another entrepreneur.

Currently, about 20% of all fintech start-ups in Africa are focusing on lending solutions, with investors backing them with significant amount of funding. This is primarily due to a growing demand for financing in Africa. Moreover, limited barriers with regards to regulations for digital lending start-ups also make it easy for companies to enter this space and test the market before investing large sums of money or entering into a partnership with a bank.

This may change in the long run, however, with regulators increasingly monitoring this growing sector. For instance, in March 2018, the Kenyan government published a draft bill under which digital lenders will be licensed by a new Financial Markets Conduct Authority and lenders will be bound by interest rate caps that are set by the authority.

Insurance and wealth management

Apart from agriculture financing and credit scoring and lending, there are several digital start-ups in the space of insurance and wealth management. There are limited traditional solutions for insurance and wealth management in Africa, a fact that presents significant potential for growth in these categories.

South Africa’s Pineapple Insurance is a leading player in the insurtech space. The company operates as a decentralized peer-to-peer insurance company wherein members take a picture of the product they want to insure and the company uses artificial intelligence to calculate an appropriate premium. The premium is stored in the member’s Pineapple wallet and when a claim is paid out, a proportionate amount is withdrawn from the wallets of all the members in that category. Moreover, members can withdraw unused premium deposits at the end of every year making the process completely transparent.

In addition to Pineapple Insurance, there are several other companies that are making waves in the insurtech sector. These include, South-Africa based Naked Insurance (which uses artificial intelligence to offer low cost car insurance), Kenya-based GrassRoots Bim (which leverages mobile technology to develop insurance solutions for the mass market), and Tanzania-based Jamii Africa (which offers mobile micro-health insurance for the informal sector). Companies such as Piggybank.ng in Nigeria and Uplus in Rwanda, also provide digital solutions for savings and wealth management.

Apart from these fintech solutions, a lot of innovations are also taking place in the payments space. Several companies are working towards extending the reach of Africa’s mobile payment solutions. For example, a leading Kenyan mobile payment company, DPO Group, partnered with MasterCard to launch a virtual card that can be topped with mobile money by the end of 2019. The card has a 16-digit number, an expiry date, and a security code similar to a debit card, thereby facilitating transactions beyond Kenya, with rest of the word as well.

EOS Perspective

There is an immense opportunity in the fintech space in Africa at the moment. Most start-ups are currently operating in Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria, and are expected to move to other parts of the continent once they have achieved certain scalability and outside investment. Having said that, foreign investors are also keenly observing movement in this space and are on the lookout for fresh concepts that have the capability to build new offerings as well disrupt existing financial solutions.

At the same time, with the industry being relatively new, many of its aspects remain unknown, a fact that increases risk of investing in the sector. Currently, a lot of these solutions depend heavily on data (especially through mobile usage). However, there are increasing regulations regarding data privacy across the globe and over the course of time, this trend is also expected to reach Africa.

Moreover, direct regulations regarding the fintech sector may also impact the business of several new players. Currently the companies are evolving fast and the regulators are playing catch-up, however, once the industry becomes seasoned, clear regulations are expected to ensure safety of the money involved. Fintech companies are also vulnerable to risks arising from online fraud, hacking, data breaches, etc., and regulations are extremely important to keep these in check as well.

While the sector enjoys limited scrutiny at the moment, entry and operations may not be as simplistic in the long run as they seem now. Despite this, the sector is expected to prosper and witness further innovation that will drive it into new territories to satisfy the currently unmet financial needs of the African population.

02/02/2018by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Can Cryptocurrencies Dent the Trillion-Dollar Banking Industry?

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Cryptocurrencies (such as bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin) have definitely been the talk of the town this year. With their prices rising beyond bounds, everyone is sharing their two cents on the future of this fairly new concept of digital currency. Among these, are also players of the established financial system, which up till now have largely ignored cryptocurrencies terming them as a short-lived phenomenon. However, this has changed as bitcoin prices continue to soar and banks and other financial institutions evaluate not only the merits of the new currency and the technology behind it, but also the perils of not acting swiftly enough to adapt to the changing financial market scenario.

Cryptocurrencies and blockchain – what are we talking about?

Owing to an unparalleled rise in its prices, cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, have garnered massive interest from the public at large, however, very few understand how they and the technology that underpins them actually work.

Cryptocurrency is a digital form of money that is secure and largely anonymous. It uses encryption techniques to regulate the creation of the currency units and verify the transactions, thereby eliminating the need of a third-party verification (that is conducted by banks in case of traditional currency). However, to better comprehend the concept of cryptocurrencies it is vital to understand the core technology that enables its existence – blockchain technology.

Blockchain is a global distributed ledger or database of transactions running on an expansive peer to peer network, where transactions are securely stored and confirmed without the need of a central certifying body. Each and every transaction ever made historically is noted transparently and any new transaction is accepted/verified on the basis of all previous transactions undertaken (i.e. to ensure that the person undertaking the transaction has the credit to carry out the transaction).

Blockchain is increasingly finding application across industries – we wrote about its entry into the healthcare sector in our publication Blockchain Technology – Next Frontier in Healthcare? in March 2017.

The next aspect is to understand how cryptocurrencies are created/transacted. A new unit of currency is created when a “cryptocurrency miner” solves a complex computational algorithm to confirm a transaction and add it to the blockchain. For their service (i.e. to confirm and conduct the transaction), the miner generates a certain amount of the cryptocurrency for himself, thereby creating additional units of the cryptocurrency. Having said that, cryptocurrencies are limited in number (for example, there can only be 21 million Bitcoins and 84 million litecoins).

Cryptocurrencies are stored in a digital wallet, using which the user can spend the currency as well as check his balance.

Leading companies increasingly accept cryptocurrencies

While the reach of cryptocurrencies still remains largely limited when compared with conventional money, their acceptability and transaction value have been steadily rising. Several leading companies now accept bitcoins (the leading cryptocurrency) as a form of payment. These include Subway, Microsoft, Reddit, Expedia.com, WordPress.com, Virgin Galactic, Tesla, etc.

McDonalds announced that it will start accepting bitcoins in 2018, while Argos (a retailer) as well as British Airways have also expressed their intent to start accepting bitcoins as a mean of payments by 2018. In addition, the daily total value of bitcoins being transacted has also seen a substantial rise from about US$200 million worth of bitcoins being transacted daily in January 2017 to US$2 billion by November 2017. However, the per-day volume of transactions has witnessed a comparatively moderate rise as they ranged around 200,000-300,000 transactions per day at the beginning of the year and increased to about 350,000-450,000 number of daily transactions by December 2017.

Central banks evaluate risks to the banking system

This momentous rise in their popularity and acceptability over the past years has made central banks across the world realize and evaluate the risk posed by this revolutionary technology.

Cryptocurrencies bite into banks’ space

The traditional money used across the globe gains its credibility by being backed by a centralized authority (mainly a central bank of a country). However, cryptocurrencies remove the need of a third-party guarantor and depend on un-hackable peer-to-peer (blockchain) technology to guarantee value (i.e. when a transaction is made using cryptocurrency, the miners validate the transaction and unlock a small amount of cryptocurrency from the network as a compensation for their service.) Thus, in simple terms, they make the job of banks (who act as a third-party in terms of all money transactions) redundant.

Therefore, when using cryptocurrencies, consumers save on commissions that they have been paying to banks for processing financial transactions. These include credit and debit card transaction fee, international money transfer fee, clearing and settlement fee, among several others. This not only saves customers money but also time.

Moreover, the use of cryptocurrencies makes financing easier as it opens another avenue for financing for people who have been turned down by banks or other traditional channels. In case better terms and rates are offered in this form of peer-to-peer financing, customers eligible for bank loans may also steer towards digital money for financing.

Explore our other Perspectives on blockchain

Decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies protects the client identity

Another advantage of cryptocurrencies over conventional currency is security and privacy. Blockchain technology is known to protect client information and identity better than banks. Since it is a peer-to-peer network that is distributed across a host of computers across the world, it is less susceptible to cyberattacks when compared with bank servers that are usually located at one place (thereby making attacks comparatively simpler). Thus, the decentralized nature of blockchain and in turn cryptocurrencies makes it more secure than traditional banking. The anonymous nature of the transactions also makes it attractive to a certain type of customers who value privacy.

These factors pose a significant risk to the traditional banking system, which must act swiftly if it does not wish to cede further ground to cryptocurrencies. In order to compete with digital money, banks need to improve services, especially by offering digital services at a lower fee, and offer similar real-time services that cryptocurrencies offer. Moreover, they must realize the end of their monopoly on financial transactions and get rid of standard manipulations such as charging hidden fees on several financial services, such as credit and debit cards.

Banks start to embrace the revolution

Banks can also seize certain opportunities presented by the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies. These include providing escrow services, helping customers exchange their money for bitcoins, etc. For instance, in May 2017, Norway’s largest online-only bank, Skandiabanken announced its plans to offer clients the ability to link bank accounts to their cryptocurrency holdings.

At the same time, several banks (both central and private) are also looking at creating their own digital currency and are showing keen interest in understanding and adapting blockchain technology for interbank transfers.

People’s Bank of China (China’s central bank) is developing its own digital currency in an effort to reduce transaction costs, expand the outreach of financial services to rural areas and increase the efficiency of its monetary policy. On similar lines, Russia’s Communications Minister has announced in October 2017 the country’s plans to create and launch state-controlled digital currency, which would use blockchain to decentralize control and improve trust but would be issued and tracked like conventional currency. The Dutch Central Bank has also created its own cryptocurrency for internal circulation only to get an understanding of its working. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have launched a joint research project on the adoption of blockchain technology.

The 2017 Global Blockchain Benchmarking Study, published in September, analyzed 200 central banks and stated that about 20% of central banks plan to deploy blockchain within the next two years, while about 40% plan to apply it within the decade. Moreover, about 80% claim to be researching blockchain technology with the aim of issuing their own cryptocurrencies.

On the private side, in July 2017, the Digital Trade Chain Consortium, which consists of seven European banks, namely Deutsche Bank, HSBC, KBC, Natixis, Rabobank, Societe Generale, and Unicredit awarded a contract to IBM to build a digital trade platform that will run on IBM’s cloud.

In another deal, IBM is working along with Japan’s, Aeon Financial Service, to develop a blockchain-based financial platform to provide settlement and transactions for both corporate as well as retail financial services, which will include virtual currency payments between individuals and businesses, loyalty points allocation and redemption, and transaction data management.

In September 2017, six major banking corporations (Barclays, Credit Suisse, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, HSBC, MUFG, and State Street) announced that they are partnering up to create a cryptocurrency of their own. The digital coin that is being called “utility settlement coin” would be used for clearing and settling transactions for these banks globally over a blockchain. Currently, the banks are in talks with central bank regulators regarding the same and are expected to launch their commercial-grade blockchain by 2018.

While banks may be wary of the credibility of the currently regulated cryptocurrencies, most of them agree on and see blockchain technology as the difference-maker and are open to adopting blockchain to upgrade their services, such as improving payment systems. As per experts, blockchain technology can save the financial industry US$20 billion per year by 2020.

Cryptocurrencies’ drawbacks go beyond threats just to the banking system

However, not everything about cryptocurrencies works well, as the current set of cryptocurrencies being traded also has some shortcomings when compared with the traditional financial system.

While the anonymity of transactions may be seen as a positive to a certain group of users, it does pose a threat to the society in general. The anonymity makes cryptocurrencies a convenient choice for illegal activities, such as money laundering. Moreover, it also provides a window to terrorist financing as money can switch hands without being traced.

Cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, also have a drawback of being limited in number (the number of bitcoin is limited to 21 million). This limitation makes cryptocurrencies somewhat similar to the gold standard currency, wherein a country’s currency has a value directly linked to gold. This monetary approach has been deserted by most economists as this money supply policy that does not factor in the fact that changes in demand generate large fluctuations in prices (as being witnessed in bitcoins presently) and these fluctuations are not practical in the day-to-day workings of the society, especially wage payments. Therefore, while demand for bitcoin may be increasing, it cannot largely replace traditional currency due to such intrinsic characteristics.

Moreover, the current increase in bitcoin demand is speculated to be a bubble by several analysts who claim that the exponential rise in prices has more to do with an ongoing investment frenzy to make quick profits and exit, rather than actual established increase in usage.

EOS Perspective

Whether it is a long-term replacement to traditional currency or not, cryptocurrencies cannot be ignored. The unimaginable rise in the prices of bitcoin (from close to US$1,000 in January 2017 to about US$17,000 in December 2017) has compelled banks to pay close attention to this upcoming competitor. While cryptocurrencies do offer several benefits (such as elimination of third-party, easier financing, and greater security) that are enticing consumers to move beyond traditional currencies and banking, they are no position to uproot the gigantic money market. However, that does not mean that banks can just ignore them.

While cryptocurrencies do offer several benefits, they are in no position to uproot the gigantic money market. However, that does not mean that banks can just ignore them

Banks must work towards innovating digital services and making them cheaper and faster. Cryptocurrencies also open doors for banks to launch few supplementary services, such as providing escrow services and syncing their bank accounts with their cryptocurrency digital wallets. While these may be short term goals, banks are most interested in testing and adopting blockchain technology especially for clearing and settling of inter-bank transactions.

While cryptocurrencies are unlikely to uproot the banking system any time soon, we believe it should be considered that blockchain has the capability to impact the financial sector the same way Internet impacted many industries back in the 1990’s.

18/01/2013by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Can Poland Remain A ‘Green Island’ Amid Crisis-struck Europe?

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Since 2008, the economic crisis has been the subject of countless news headlines across the world with numerous economies sliding towards the verge of painful recession. Europe has been severely hit as well, with only one state, Poland, performing considerably better than those once believed to be more stable and better prepared for potential turmoil, resulting in the Polish economy being dubbed the ‘green island’ among weaker, crisis-ridden EU states.

As the economic crisis wave spread across the globe in 2008, it hit virtually all economies. The slowdown was visible in form of declining economic growth rates, which soon changed into negative growth in economies of Europe, USA and Japan. Interestingly, Poland was the only economy in the EU to register a positive growth during 2009, and, despite visible slowdown due to recession hitting its trading partners, Poland has managed to storm though the crisis reasonably well.

Since the onset of the crisis, Poland’s good economic performance has surprised many analysts. Obviously, the country did not remain unaffected, and a look at a trend line of the country’s growth rates over the past decade clearly shows how its performance has mirrored EU’s economic struggles. Nevertheless, the Polish economy managed to grow throughout the crisis, and this year, again, as the EU economy is expected to shrink by 0.3%, Polish economy is expected to expand (though modestly). Poland’s position in terms of GDP per capita increased considerably by 11 percentage points, to 65% of EU’s average in 2011. The economic growth and persistence in defying the crisis is believed to be largely underpinned by strong internal consumption, as Poles took long to believe that the crisis could have an actual impact on them, thus did not cut down on their expenditure (e.g. in 2011, the Polish retail sector enjoyed one of the highest y-o-y growth rates in retail sales during the December holiday season in Europe, second only to Russia). This strong internal consumption, paired with attractiveness for foreign investors in production-oriented sectors, along with postponed entry to the Euro zone (a fact that has helped shield Poland from Euro quakes) and limited household and corporate debt, allowing for greater stability of banking assets – these factors are typically cited as reasons for Poland’s good performance amid the crisis.

However, there seems to be an air of negativity and the country might get its share of the crisis after all. Just in November 2012, the IMF and Morgan Stanley slashed Polish GDP 2013 growth forecasts by almost half, down to 1.75% and 1.5%, respectively, as rather modest export gains are expected to fail to offset weaker consumer spending. Indeed, private consumption boom is likely to significantly cool down, as for an average Polish citizen the situation does not appear bright. The mood amongst Poles seem to no longer reflect the earlier enthusiasm, with opinions that good performance of Polish economy is now more of a government propaganda, since what they see on a daily basis contradicts the positive overtone of analysts’ words. The change in moods has been already captured – in November 2012, the Indicator of Consumer Trust (BWUK) was down by 5.3 percentage points over November 2011.

In reality, Poland’s position in EU’s GDP per capita statistics improved more as a result of a decline of the EU average, rather than actual improvement in Poles’ incomes and standard of living. The accumulated negative impact of adverse situation in the country’s Euro zone-based trading partners, leads to increased cautiousness of firms, who are introducing cost control measures, including layoffs. Rising unemployment (registered unemployment reaching close to 13% overall and as high as 28% amongst graduates in November 2012), together with growing fear of losing jobs, as well as limited credit activity, seem to have put brakes on consumer spending and thus internal consumption, an element once considered as one of the fundamental forces allowing Poland to withstand the pressures of the crisis. The mood is increasingly pessimistic, and the Poles have now started to change their shopping habits – they buy less, think twice, postpone high-value purchases, downgrade to cheaper equivalents and demand higher value for money. Poles are finally increasingly aware of the economic storm going through neighbouring economies, and realize that they do not live on a safe ‘green island’ any more. This fear is escalated by recurring news and discussions filled with warnings of 2013 brining the crisis full-on to Poland. And what is definitely not helping is the opposition leaders’ lack of political will to constructively work with the government in averting the impending crisis.

Many economists urge Poles to remain calm and claim that there is no reason to panic (at least, not yet). Though the slowdown in economic growth is a fact, consumers’ calm approach is definitely recommended, as fear of the future might multiply the slowdown, resembling a self-fulfilling prophecy. But, one has to keep in mind that consumption levels, strongly correlated with consumer sentiments, has no capacity to remain the single force driving economic growth. Several cushions that previously protected the Polish economy slowly cease to exist – continuous, high value public spending, favourable VAT, weak currency that supported Polish exporters and high inflow of EU funds to sponsor infrastructure investments are becoming a story of the past. In this negative scenario, consumers’ wishful thinking, positive attitude and frequent shopping trips might turn out far too weak to lift Poland’s economy as Europe and the Euro zone continue to sink.

It seems that the story of the ‘green island’ may not remain true for long.

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