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by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Brazil – Lucrative but Challenging E-commerce Industry

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Brazil is likely to account for approximately half of US$64.4 billion retail e-commerce sales across Latin America in 2019. Being the region’s largest country with a whopping 200 million population, a tech-savvy and consumption-driven middle class, and one of the largest internet-connected populations of the world, Brazil is one of the most preferred Latin American countries where international retailers are looking to expand. However, e-commerce success in Brazil also comes with numerous challenges. Overcoming those challenges still remains a quagmire for e-commerce merchants.

This article is part of a series focusing on e-commerce in LATAM, which also includes a look into e-commerce market in Mexico

The good and the difficult

Despite the economic slowdown and political turbulence in the country, retail e-commerce market has continued to grow, recording 10% y-o-y growth in 2018. Brazilians are connected now more than ever, access to the internet and technologies is becoming affordable by the day, while consumers are particularly enthusiastic to purchase international products using online shopping websites, all of which is making Brazil Latin America’s e-commerce powerhouse. Another key reason for online retail growth is the fact that consumers have become cash-strapped amidst frail economic conditions, which has squeezed money out of the market, bringing a prominent change in buying behavior, where consumers are more price conscious and driven by promotions. In such a scenario, e-commerce has emerged as a clear winner by offering lower prices and good deals, as compared with offline channels.

Operating an e-commerce business in Brazil is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the 140 million internet users represent an enormous e-commerce opportunity, while on the other hand, Brazil is plagued with operational challenges and struggles.

However, operating an e-commerce business in Brazil is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the 140 million internet users represent an enormous e-commerce opportunity, while on the other hand, Brazil is plagued with operational challenges and struggles with complex logistics, high tax rates, and payment issues, among others.

An array of challenges

One of the key challenges for any international retailer operating in Brazil is the high tax rate of 6.4% applicable on all international payments, which is enough to disincentivize shoppers to make purchases from international retailers such as Amazon or Alibaba. Further, customers are required to pay 60% flat tax on all imported product purchases valued between US$50-500 (the range may vary across different states). The taxes almost double the price of products, which could deter digital sales. In addition to the taxes, Brazil’s customs procedures are slow and complex, and shipments take a long time to arrive, making the online shopping experience arduous for customers.

For international retailers to operate in Brazil, it is crucial that they familiarize themselves with various local payment methods such as Boleto Bancário (bank slips), payment options offered by regional players (MercadoLivre offers MercadoPago, which is equivalent to PayPal), among others. This is because only 20% of Brazilians have access to international credit cards and instead prefer paying through local payment channels. This could be an obstacle for e-commerce players, as most transactions on shopping websites rely on online card payments. Furthermore, credit cards provided by domestic banks can only issue payments that are made in Brazilian Real, hence, international retailers need to find a way to convert currency if they want to operate in Brazil.

Brazil – Lucrative but Challenging E-commerce Industry

There are also several operational, logistics, and infrastructural challenges that are impairing e-commerce growth in the country. Strikes in Brazil are very common and happen quite often, consequently halting operations of federal customs or postal services. It usually takes some time to resume operations after the strike and the packages/deliveries could take even longer to reach the final destination. The recent truckers strike in spring of 2018 caused more than 3 million online deliveries to arrive with significant delays.

The country also lacks proper infrastructure to support e-commerce business – the distribution centers rarely function 24-hours a day due to security concerns and costly overtimes, which prevents shippers from collecting packages at night when the traffic is lower. Further, traffic situation in major Brazilian cities such Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo is so overwhelming that same day or next day shipping requirements are very difficult to fulfill. In addition, rampant cargo robberies are further disrupting e-commerce business in Brazil and are an acute problem in Rio. All major e-commerce players and logistics companies are investing heavily to protect goods, which increases security costs and is subsequently squeezing profit margins. Sao Paulo’s cargo transportation and logistics companies spend about 10-14% of revenue on ensuring cargo safety, while in Rio this ratio lies between 15% and 20% of revenue.

Sao Paulo’s cargo transportation and logistics companies spend about 10-14% of revenue on ensuring cargo safety, while in Rio this ratio lies between 15% and 20% of revenue.

Strong fundamentals promise opportunities

Nonetheless, challenges have not yet dissuaded customers from shopping online or prevented international and local players to expand operations in Brazil. Players are continuously making efforts to improve services to lure customers. One of the key trends that are reshaping customer support services is the increasing focus to provide chatbots on e-commerce websites for 24-hour shopping assistance. Brazilian e-commerce players are betting on chatbots to improve customer engagement and management, and to generate brand awareness.

With rising number of smartphone users in Brazil, mobile commerce is also growing and players are increasingly focusing on tapping this opportunity. In 2017, m-commerce users grew 42% y-o-y and mobile devices contributed to 31% of e-commerce sales in H1 2017. Furthermore, Brazil is a country with highly active social media users, a fact which serves as a key platform to expand business – as of March 2016, 60% of e-commerce sites used social media for sales and marketing. Numerous Brazilian companies use social media for marketing and it has become an integral part of e-commerce business, where social media is used as a tool for promotion and to reach out to customers.

EOS Perspective

While Brazil’s e-commerce market could be a cash cow for retailers, it also comes with various quirks and challenges. Localizing business in Brazil requires enormous amount of planning, calculation, and understanding the market before entering it. The high cost of doing business could be intimidating for several players along with online payment challenges, hefty taxes, and inferior infrastructure. However, forging local partnerships could solve some of the issues. For instance, cross-border e-commerce merchants could partner with Brazilian payment processing companies and invest in developing local payment methods to overcome the online payment challenge.

Alternative delivery channels are becoming popular, and these could help solve the logistics and shipping issues to a certain extent. InPost, a Polish company that operates a network of parcel lockers, introduced click and collect services in Brazil, which allows customers to place an order online and collect package from InPost’s lockers that are situated at most frequently visited places such as gas stations. Customers receive a QR code by email, which is used to operate the lockers. The lockers offer convenience for customers and reduce wait times, and greatly reduce logistics cost for retailers. While this is only one of potential novelties that could ease logistics problems, the arrival of established international retailers such as Amazon and Alibaba might be expected to bring in other innovations to reduce delivery, infrastructure, and payment barriers.

Despite the existing macro-economic and operational challenges, the country’s potential as a digital commerce market will continue to attract investments and is expected to keep growing.

Despite the existing macro-economic and operational challenges, the country’s potential as a digital commerce market will continue to attract investments and is expected to keep growing. With a large internet savvy consumer market eager to purchase international products and with westernization deeply influencing the young population, Brazil will continue to draw the attention of international retailers across the world. Amidst the country’s turbulent politics and economy, purchasing power grew 3% y-o-y in 2017, making Brazil even more attractive for online retailers. With new trends reshaping the industry and players forging ways to improve operations, the country is expected to remain the largest e-commerce market of Latin America ahead of Mexico and Argentina in the foreseeable future.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Commentary: Truck Drivers’ Strike amid Brazil’s Recovery from Recession

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In May 2018, Brazil witnessed a nationwide strike conducted by 200,000 truck drivers, which managed to paralyze the entire country for over 10 days and caused major issues such as shortage of food, death of poultry, and unavailability of public transport, among others.

In 2017, Brazil’s Oil and Gas Company, Petrobras, tied its fuel prices to float with international prices. This was following years of being exposed to high prices paid by Petrobras for refined fuel in international markets and the company’s inability to pass on these higher costs onto the customers domestically, due to existing price controls. The decision to float the domestic prices was further sealed by Petrobras’ attempt to seek recovery of profits after the company’s share prices fall due to a corruption scandal.

The floating price mechanism brought an increase in domestic fuel prices, which greatly affected truck drivers whose earnings were gradually slashed, in a scenario where the Real, Brazil’s official currency, weakened by 17% against the US dollar between May 2017 and May 2018. As a result, truck drivers decided to take their demands for a fuel price control policy to the streets, paralyzing many activities and sectors of the Brazilian economy, and exposing some of Brazil’s main weaknesses.

Brazil greatly depends on the truck industry for distribution

The strike caused substantial fuel shortage as oil trucks were not delivering petrol to gas stations, which affected delivery of other goods across the country. Subsequently, disruption in the distribution of food and other products translated into a visible shortage of items on supermarket shelves and a general hysteria that made people over-purchase what was left. The strike also exposed Brazil’s over-dependency on road distribution system for various sectors to operate (instead of using a balanced mix that would include other means of transport, e.g. cargo trains). Most importantly, the strike, in which truck drivers blocked main road arteries within the country’s 19 states, caused great losses, including (but not limited to) US$826.8 million worth of poultry during those 10 days.

After several attempts by the Brazilian government to reach an agreement with truck drivers, both parties settled to pause the strike – initially for 15 days although now for unlimited time, despite truck drivers’ reservations about the government eventually meeting their demands. The potential of the strike being resumed is still looming on the horizon of the Brazilian economy. The persistence of this conflict and the threat of a longer strike could lead to longer interruption of businesses and industrial activities, which is detrimental for a country that is recovering from one of its deepest recessions of 2015-2016.

Consumers’ purchasing power and confidence may decline

Consumers’ purchasing power is expected to slightly decline due to price increase after the temporary food shortage. According to the price index released by the FIPE (Economic Research Institute Foundation) during the strike, general food prices rose by 1.82%, resulting in a 0.62% increase above what was expected when compared to the same period of 2017. Price of half-finished goods (e.g. poultry) rose by 8.43%, while dairy products prices increased by around 5.85%. In some cases, such as with potatoes, the price increase was of 50.3%. Further, a spread hysteria among consumers led to over-purchasing of products, even at a higher value, meaning Brazilians’ disposable income was reduced for the month of May.

Inflation in May reached an unexpected 3.22%, an atypical increment for a month with usually low inflation rate. In a country overcoming a two-year deep economic recession, uncertainty about food availability and low disposable income have affected consumers’ confidence, which has fallen 4 percentage points in June, potentially translating into reduction of expenditures and hindering Brazil’s economic growth.

Investors’ trust may also fall

The 2015-2016 recession weakened local demand, however, Brazil managed to register a trade surplus and a low account deficit due to positive exports volumes and foreign direct investments (FDI) entering the country. Since the government and the truck drivers are still in talks to reach an agreement, the threat of another strike of similar nature is real. Experts agree that investors may become wary and cease to invest further, if political unrest and economic instability were to continue in the country. As a result, Brazil may not be capable of improving, or even maintaining, its low deficit in the account balance. In 2017, investments reached US$70.3 billion and, before the strike happened, experts believed FDI would register US$80 billion in 2018.

Brazilian president, Michel Temer, offered Petrobras US$274 million as compensation for losses it would incur by cutting oil prices. Though this may offer a 60-day solution to the worried truck drivers, it is only a short-term compensation which Brazil does not plan on extending forever.

EOS Perspective

It should come as no surprise that the strike was conducted only a few months away from Brazil’s presidential elections. Analysts believe it to be a strategy to weaken the image of president Temer, and shed some positive light on the Worker’s Party, of which Lula Ignacio Da Silva, former Brazilian president, is a current member. Despite Lula’s conviction in January 2018 for corruption, its party requested Brazil’s Supreme Court to grant a “suspensive effect” to the conviction, which would eventually allow him to run in the next presidential elections.

Regardless of who will be elected president, the strike has certainly stirred the economic and political scene, and has uncovered several of Brazil’s vulnerabilities.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

EU-Mercosur FTA: Old Negotiations, New Zest

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The EU and Mercosur (a trade bloc comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay*) free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations date back almost two decades, to 1999. After failing to seal the deal in 1999 and again in 2004, the countries initiated new negotiations in 2010 and though started out slowly, they accelerated the process in 2016 (with hopes to finalize the deal by the end of 2017). A trade deal at this moment will be of significant importance to both sides owing to substantial amount of trade between the two blocs. The EU is Mercosur’s largest trading partner accounting for 21% of the bloc’s trade in 2015, while Brazil alone is the EU’s eleventh largest trading partner. However, despite a positive framework for the agreement to happen, there is still a great deal of resistance from few EU countries regarding the opening up of their agriculture sectors. Now it remains to see whether the two blocs can reach the much needed compromises and end up with an agreement by the end of the year or talks will remain hanging once more.
*Venezuela has been suspended from the trade bloc in 2016 and therefore is out of the negotiations

While this may not be the first time the EU and Mercosur sit to negotiate the terms of an FTA, it definitely seems to be the most promising one. The main reason the earlier efforts have gone in vain was the Argentinian leftist government’s adverse stance on trading outside their own backyard. This changed with the election of president Mauricio Macri in December 2015, who unlike his predecessor (Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner), looks at international trade as a growth opportunity for Argentina. Similarly, the impeachment of the Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff in May 2016 resulted in a new political wave in Brazil. While Brazil’s former president did take small steps towards trade liberalization, her successor, Michel Temer, has accelerated this process and has made the EU-Mercosur deal one of his top priorities.

Another reason this deal has gained immense importance for the Latin American bloc has been a declining bilateral trade among Mercosur’s two largest members, Argentina and Brazil, owing to recession. Trade between the countries declined from US$36 billion to US$22 billion during 2013-2016. This has forced the two nations to soften their stance on global trade.

Considering these developments, as well as the changing political and trade dynamics between several Latin American countries and the USA, following the arrival of Trumps administration at the White House, Mercosur’s openness and renewed interest in strengthening international trade ties is fully understandable. We wrote about it in February 2017 in our article Trump in Action: Triumph or Tremor for Latin America? and again later in June 2017 in Japan Hopes to Get a Slice of Mercosur Opportunity Cake as LATAM Exports to USA Decline.

On the other side of the negotiations table, as the EU has maintained a positive outlook towards foreign trade in general, the lost prospect of a Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the USA under Donald Trump has also reinvigorated EU’s interest in the Mercosur FTA. Moreover, the EU views the deal with Mercosur as a suitable counter-measure to the growing Chinese influence in Latin America.

Apart from these aspects, the main reason for renewed commitment to the deal by both sides is the significant and increasing level of trade and investment between the two blocs. In 2014, EU’s investments in Mercosur countries reached US$494 billion. The EU’s exports to Mercosur expanded from about US$24.6 billion (€21 billion) in 2005 to about US$54 billion (€46 billion) in 2015. Similarly for Mercosur, its exports to the EU increased from US$37.5 billion (€32 billion) to US$49 billion (€42 billion) during the same period. Agriculture products constituted 48% of Mercosur’s exports to the EU, while machinery (29% of exports) and vehicle and parts (17% of exports) were EU’s largest export categories to the Latin American bloc.

The EU stands to gain a great deal from the FTA. As per current calculations, EU exporters would save about US$5.2 billion (€4.4 billion) annually on trade tariffs and stand to double their exports within five years of reaching a deal.

Despite hefty trade benefits and a lot of political and economic factors being in favor of the deal, agriculture remains a sore point. Several EU countries, led by France, do not want to open up their agriculture sector to Mercosur’s exports as they feel their domestic produce (especially grains and meat) cannot compete with that of Brazil and Argentina in terms of price. In addition, they are concerned that Mercosur’s agricultural produce are not subject to the same health standards as their domestic produce.

A quick glance at the average production costs indicates that the EU farmers have a reason to worry. As per estimates, if the deal comes through, the amount of maize available in Brazil and Argentina for export by 2020 will be between 23 and 26 million tonnes. While the average production cost of cereal in Mercosur is close to US$94/ tonne (€80/tonne), it is about US$141/tonne (€120/tonne) in the EU. This is likely to result in substitution of EU-grown maize with that from Mercosur, which will most likely result in a loss of about US$2.3 billion (€2 billion) by 2020 for EU’s agriculture sector. In addition, it can be expected to result in an indirect loss of about US$1.2-3.5 billion (€1-3 billion) as Mercosur-produced maize is likely to also replace wheat for animal feed during high production and harvest months.

In case of meat products, beef produced in Mercosur is more competitive than EU’s beef in terms of pricing. Moreover, a study of the usual trend of beef quotas suggest that they are first filled with noble cuts exports (including filet, entrecote, and rump steak) followed by other hindquarter cuts (such as topside and silverside). In case the deal takes place, it is expected that Mercosur’s beef will largely substitute local beef produce with Mercosur’s export volume (keeping in mind higher quantities of noble cuts, such as Hilton beef) expecting to reach 1 million tonnes. These would be worth US$18.8 billion (€16 billion) and would directly impact the local production and sales value. To bring this into perspective, the value of Brazil’s beef exports (the largest beef exporter among the Mercosur countries) to the EU was US$485 million in 2016. Moreover, low-priced imports from Mercosur will put pressure on the pricing in the domestic EU market resulting in close to a 30% downward price revision, which in turn is highly likely to result in further losses of about US$10.6 billion (€9 billion). In case the EU agreed to 300,000 tonnes at zero duty, this would expectedly result in US$3.5 billion (€3 billion) in direct costs and US$7.1 billion in indirect costs (€6 billion).

In addition to this, there are several non-tariff related issues with Mercosur’s produce, such as lack of tagging and traceability of livestock to identify and guarantee origin. Also, several drugs, such as hormones and growth promoters, as well as few antibiotics and insecticides that are banned in the EU are legally used in Mercosur. These factors have resulted in countries such as France, Ireland, and Poland opposing the EU-Mercosur FTA.

Another source of disagreement for the EU lies in the trade of sugar and ethanol, which the European producers claim should be excluded from the list of freely-traded items. This stems primarily from the fact that the Brazilian government provides subsidies worth US$1.8 billion annually to its ethanol and sugar producers, a fact providing them with an undue advantage compared to the European counterparts.

On the other hand, Mercosur is discontent with EU’s limited concessions on agricultural imports and its stance to continue quotas on the Mercosur’s food imports. Mercosur also has some concerns regarding providing the EU with access to public tenders, which in Brazil alone are worth about US$176 billion (€150 billion), however, they are positive that they will be able to reach a consensus during negotiations.

While few points of contention remain, negotiators at both ends are keen on resolving these issues and signing the deal by the end of 2017, remaining aware of the significance of this deal for both the sides as well as of the tendency for these talks to remain unresolved if not pushed soon. Moreover, both sides want to exploit the current favorable political scenario in Brazil and Argentina. With Brazil heading for presidential elections in 2018, the chances of a leftist-government coming to power do exist, and this can again put the deal in danger if it is not completed by then. Both sides of the negotiating table want to reach an agreement sought-after for the past 20 years as early as possible, even if it means compromising on some expectations.

EU Mercosur FTA Old Negotiations New Zest

EOS Perspective

A goal of completing the deal by the end of 2017 seems like quite a gun to the heads of both the blocs, as past experience, both in the case of this deal as well as other FTAs, proves that the process is never quick nor simple. Moreover, the EU seems somewhat divided on the deal, with Spain, Portugal, and Germany advocating for it and France, Poland, and Ireland opposing it. That being said, this deal – which has been on and off again and again since 1999 – has never been as close to getting finalized as it is now. This is primarily due to the fact that both Argentina and Brazil (that were the two main factors holding the deal back all these years) are extremely keen on reaching this agreement with EU, to the extent that they may be willing to compromise quite a bit as long as the deal includes provisions that leave room for future improvements and it brings increase in trade and thus growth for local economies. However, it remains to be seen whether they will be willing to stretch their compromises far enough to agree to the EU’s terms on the agriculture produce trade. At the same time, it is not clear how much the EU is going to push for these provisions, so there is a chance that both parties will manage to reach a well-rounded deal for both the sides. The least probable scenario is that the deal will come to a stand-still once more, however till the ink dries on the deal, nothing can be considered as certain.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Brazil – Long Road Ahead

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Sentiments regarding economic recovery in Brazil rose high when Index of Economic Activity of the Central Bank (IBC-Br) recorded growth in January and February this year, only to be dampened by the March data, which showed 0.44% decline in the index. Hope of economic revival was hinged on good show by service sector, coupled with anticipation of improvement in agriculture and industrial sectors in the first quarter of 2017.

Fluctuations in IBC-Br, which is considered as a preview of Brazil’s GDP performance, indicate the fragile condition of the country’s economy, shaken by two back-to-back recessionary years. Downturn of 2015 and 2016 was uncommon in the country’s recent economic history, which had not seen the GDP declining for two straight quarters on more than four occasions since 1996. Brazil was among the few countries that were able to withstand the global financial turmoil of 2008-2009.

Reasons behind the deterioration of the Brazilian economy seem to be clear. Reliance on commodity exports for growth and high consumer debt were among the key factors that burst Brazil’s economic bubble. Unless these issues are addressed, Brazil’s long-term economic recovery will remain doubtful. Hence, it is imperative to look where the country stands with respect to each of the factors that contributed so considerably to the deterioration over the past two years.

EOS Perspective

In near term, commodities are likely to retain high share in Brazil’s external trade, as increasing the export share of finished or semi-finished goods would require significant efforts that Brazil currently is unlikely to be capable of making. Commodity prices are expected to remain volatile in near term, with soybean, sugar, and wheat likely to continue registering decline in prices (as witnessed year on year, April 2016 – April 2017). Therefore, unless the domestic demand picks up, commodity export is unlikely to assist significantly in boosting the Brazilian economy in the near future.

Keeping interest rates low is one of the ways to boost spending, and the country’s falling inflation, which in April 2017 plummeted to 4.08% (below the market forecast of 4.1%), has enabled the central bank to slash interest rates from 12.25% to 11.25%. This is expected to reduce the cost of credit for households, thereby boosting spending (amid fears of debt burden ballooning up again).

Brazil needs to create more assets to increase productivity and to create more income sources. Capital formation (a measure of investment) as a share of GDP was at about 15.5% in 2016 (fourth quarter) as compared with the high of 23% in 2013 (first quarter). The country needs to invest more, and one way to unlock funds for this would be through reforming the pension scheme (bill related to pension reforms was passed in lower house of Congress in May 2017 amid protests), which is the primary reason behind Brazil’s fiscal deficit. Brazil currently spends more than 10% of its GDP on pensions. Reforms seek to fix minimum retirement age at 65 for men and 62 for women. At present, many Brazilians qualify to retire in early to mid-fifties, and this not only impacts the productivity but also puts pressure on the government coffers.

There is a general consensus that Brazil will come out of recession in 2017, registering a modest sub-1% growth. However, to sustain this recovery, it will require a political will, fiscal discipline, and a vision for long-term growth.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Japan Hopes to Get a Slice of Mercosur Opportunity Cake as LATAM Exports to USA Decline

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In early May 2017, representatives from Japan and Mercosur, a sub-regional alliance consisting of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, met to discuss trade and investment between the nations with the aim to promote free trade and fluid movement of goods. Over the past years, business between Mercosur and Japan has been badly affected mainly by outdated trade policies that have not been revised in a long time. To improve economic relations between Japan and member countries of Mercosur, trade policies need to be renewed and new sectors of investment should be explored.

In 2016, Japan exports to Mercosur nations reached US$3.5 billion and imports from Mercosur totaled US$7.6 billion. Both exports and imports drastically reduced since 2012, taking a hit of 52% and 42.8%, respectively.

Japan and Argentina

After a decade of slow business dealings, trade relations between Japan and Argentina are showing signs of improvement. The number of Japanese companies operating in Argentina reduced from 120 in the 1990s to 54 by the end of 2007. However, the interest of Japanese businesses in the Argentinian market has started to return since the last quarter of 2015, with 78 companies currently in operation in Argentina, and Japan aims to have a minimum of 200 Japanese companies operating in the coming years. According to Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), in 2016, Japanese exports to Argentina stood at US$630 million, primary exports being machinery and electronics. Imports to Japan were worth US$762 million in the same year.

In order to boost Argentina’s economy, president Mauricio Macri has focused on reviving infrastructure projects in the country. Taking an advantage of this opportunity, Japanese trading companies are keeping a close watch on upcoming rail contracts. Marubeni Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation, and Mitsui & Co., three of the largest trading companies in Japan, are interested in sales of passenger rail cars in Argentina and planning on submitting bids as part of the new proposed projects. Japanese companies plan to invest between US$6 billion and US$9 billion in Argentina during 2017-2020. The investments are likely to be made across various sectors including mining, energy, and agriculture, among others. With more sectors now open to investment, Japan hopes to boost trade in the broader Latin American market.

Japan and Brazil

Brazil is a large investment market for Japan. With close to 700 Japanese companies currently operating in Brazil, the commercial and industrial opportunities the country offers are unquestionable. In 2016, Japan imported goods worth US$6.7 billion from Brazil, a drop by 10.6% over the previous year when the imports stood at US$7.5 billion. Japan and Brazil are now partnering to strengthen trade and investment between the two countries to spur increase in trade.

Brazil offers Japan a considerable investment opportunity in infrastructure projects. After the Cooperation Agreement for the Promotion of Infrastructure Investments was signed in October 2016, investment in areas such as transportation, logistics, information technology, and energy is expected to increase. At the same time, Japan is a large market for Brazilian agricultural products such as soy, corn, and cotton, but Brazil is also interested to enter the fruit and beef market in Japan. While discussions and negotiations regarding the entry of Brazilian products in the Japanese market are still under way, issues related to hygiene and sanitary standards still need to be addressed.

Japan and Paraguay

Paraguay is one of the least explored countries in terms of trade by Japanese firms. Between 2011 and 2014, only some 10 Japanese companies established operations in Paraguay. Japanese exports to Paraguay stood at US$77.5 million in 2016 while imports from Paraguay were reported at US$41.6 million during the same year. Japanese companies plan to invest in Paraguay to improve business and generate revenue in sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, and energy, which are seen as areas of opportunities in the future.

Japan and Uruguay

In January 2015, the countries signed a Japan-Uruguay Investment Agreement – the first investment agreement between Japan and any member of Mercosur. Uruguay has become an attractive destination for Japanese investors mainly due to the country’s economic and political stability, low level of corruption, and easy inflow of FDI in the country. Additionally, Japanese companies are provided with the same opportunities and conditions as domestic firms. Uruguay offers the benefit of being able to serve as a distribution hub and boasts of good logistical services to other Mercosur countries – Japanese companies are likely take this as an opportunity to develop an overseas base to strengthen business ties within the region. Uruguay largely depends on natural resources such as wind, water, solar, and biomass to produce energy, making the renewable energy sector in the country another attractive area for investment by Japanese companies in the coming years.

EOS Perspective

The arrival of Trump’s administration leading to USA’s withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership and focus on encouraging domestic industrialization by limiting imports from countries across Latin America, have resulted in several LATAM countries’ attempts to improve and tighten friendly trade relations within their own region as well as with new partners globally, including Asia – we wrote about it in our article Trump In Action: Triumph Or Tremor For Latin America? in February 2017. Japan appears to be willing to use this situation to its advantage by renewing trade and investment policies with Mercosur nations as well.

In the past five years, exports and imports value have declined continuously between Japan and Mercosur nations, and to reverse this declining trend and to revive trade, Japan started to build new trading relationships with Mercosur countries. If successful, this initiative is likely to serve two purposes – firstly, Mercosur countries can reduce dependence on the USA and move towards new markets to look for new opportunities, and secondly, through increased investment in Mercosur, Japan can become a prominent player in the region to reap benefits from engaging in business with several emerging countries.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

Mobile Cuisine in Mexico and Brazil: Are Food Trucks Ready to Roll?

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Food trucks, a new trend in food service combining gourmet cuisine and low cost establishment, have been increasingly rolling around the world. The concept originated in the USA, where feeding consumers from trucks has been gaining popularity with the market CAGR expected at 17% between 2012 and 2017. Around 2012, this business model reached Mexico and Brazil, appearing as an attractive option for entrepreneurs to invest in the eatery business. But no matter how promising this niche may appear, inadequate regulations, lack of licenses, and poor infrastructure represent major roadblocks for the mobile cuisine business to pick up in these geographies. Do food trucks stand a chance to become the new wheels to the Mexican and Brazilian gastronomy industries?

In 1974, an ice cream truck was converted into the first taco truck in east Los Angeles in the USA, and by 2010, food trucks became a prospering industry spreading across almost all major cities in the country, as well as in other large cities globally. But it is Mexico and Brazil which seem to be promising markets with an increasing amount of investors venturing into cuisine on wheels as a prosperous and flourishing business.

1-Food Truck

2-Food Truck2

 

Mexico, where over five million people ate on the street every day in 2014, has witnessed a remarkable growth of the food truck sector, boosted mainly by the country’s increasing unemployment rate and economic slowdown. A similar situation has been happening in Brazil, where since 2014, a deepening crisis has hit the country’s economy allowing food truck businesses to become increasingly successful. In both these countries, an increased demand for cheap food has been driving the growth of food truck businesses, which are proliferating due to the low initial investment required to start such an endeavor.

3-Setting up

Despite the fact that food trucks businesses seem to be profitable and low risk, their growth is challenged by deficient regulatory frameworks, poor street infrastructure, and inadequate scope of licenses to operate. Both in Mexico and Brazil, food trucks can only circulate and sell their food in a private circle, i.e. specialized fairs, events, concerts, food parks, pre-assigned parking lots, and in some cases, business owners have to pay high fees just to park in these events.

4-Challenges

EOS Perspective

Food trucks markets in Mexico and Brazil show an immense potential due to a growing appetite for low-priced food options from the expanding price-sensitive consumer segment. This demand, paired with low investment required to enter the food truck business, makes the food truck concept an attractive option for investors and entrepreneurs looking for profitability in food service businesses.

However, the issues of inadequate regulation and lack of government encouragement for the industry in both markets continue to hamper the industry growth. An introduction of appropriate legislation would likely push the sector up on its growth trajectory. For instance, if regulations allowed food trucks to circulate anywhere in Mexico, it is estimated that the business could triple its earnings up to US$19,000 a month. Further, if dedicated laws were developed to regulate food trucks operations, business owners would be likely to pay a set fee to obtain permits and licenses to function, instead of paying varied high fees to work in a private space (which currently makes it more expensive and less transparent to operate such a business). In Brazil, some prefecture authorities have sanctioned regulations allowing food truck owners to operate in already assigned slots, however, not allowing food trucks to circulate on the city streets. Many of these assigned spaces are usually occupied by private cars, since they are not properly marked, making it difficult for food trucks owners to reach new customers, which in turns hinders the industry growth.

There is no doubt that authorities in both countries need to update and implement proper regulations and permits designed specifically for food trucks sector, as only regulation that clearly establishes operating fees and free circulation for food trucks is likely to translate into a growing market. Further, only by setting proper regulations specific to the food truck sector, local authorities would be able to guarantee consumers all sold food is safe for human consumption. Moreover, government investment in street infrastructure (e.g. electricity, running water) is required to attract new entrants, who are likely to be lured to business concept due to the low initial investment, also boosting market growth. Considering the economic situation in both countries, it is clear that the authorities should be motivated to look for any possible avenue of revenue and employment growth, taking advantage of consumers’ demand for good quality low-priced food.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

The Gloomy Post-Olympic Scenario for Brazil

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Now that the Rio Olympics have ended, Brazil will soon get to see whether the expected benefits of its enormous investment start materializing. The sports extravaganza was heavy on Brazil’s pocket, as the country spent massive amount of money on construction of sports venues, housing, transportation, and other infrastructure. Hosting Olympics has indisputably driven tourism, created job opportunities, and generated profit from industries such as transportation, hospitality, entertainment, food, retail, etc. However, this upsurge seems to have been momentary, and mostly limited till the time games lasted. The mid and long term benefits of Olympics are still questionable and raising doubts whether Brazil will pay a high price for the Olympic glory.

Hosting a massive event like Olympics is always exorbitant, requiring huge investments to spruce infrastructure, improve accommodation facilities, etc. Brazil invested heavily to host the games resulting in cost overrun of 51%. Some of the major cost heads included administration, technology, and infrastructure.

1-Cost

During the games, Brazil was flocked with visitors, restaurants and hotels were buzzing with people, who spent mammoth amount of money, adding on to Brazil’s revenue. Foreign visitors spent about US$ 617 million, while ticket sales alone generated US$ 323 million. Bars and restaurants witnessed upsurge in sales and hotels enjoyed much higher occupancy rates than any other time.


2-Impact

The post-Olympic scenario looks gloomy with minimal impact on economic growth of the country (meager addition of 0.05pp to GDP) while Brazil remains engulfed with rising inflation, public debt, and high insolvency rate. Further, results of a survey conducted by Fecomércio MG (Federation of Trade in Goods, Services, and Tourism) in 2016, suggests that only 4% people believe that Brazil will reap benefits post-games and 53.3% people consider that Olympics will have no impact on businesses.


3-Post Olympic Impact

EOS Perspective

In 2009, when Rio was chosen to host the 2016 Olympics, Brazil was at the crest of its economic boom. However, currently, Brazil is struggling to fight its third straight year of recession, growing unemployment, and double-digit inflation. The economy is expected to shrink by 3.5% in 2016 owing to weak commodity prices, political instability, and low import demand from China (one of Brazil’s key trade partners). Amidst all the economic mayhem, hosting Olympics further deepened the financial crack such that Rio had to declare a state of financial emergency, when the Brazilian government authorized a loan of US$ 850 million to pay for Olympic infrastructure and security.

Economic benefits of hosting extravagant events like Olympics are often quite exaggerated. For instance, London earned revenue of barely US$3.5 billion after its lavish spending of US$ 15 billion.

For Brazil, Olympics will definitely drive a modest short-term growth in terms of economy, tourism, and job creation, however, the net impact is likely to be negative. Investment in building massive infrastructure for Olympics and additional public spending are expected to escalate public debt. Organizing a mega sporting event like Olympics amidst rising public debt is likely to result in high inflation rate visible until 2020 and an increase in regional business bankruptcies. The benefits generated by hosting Olympics might be insufficient to compensate for the economic turmoil that had already plagued Brazil even before the games commenced. Unfortunately, the timing of hosting opulent events like World Cup and Olympics back to back might jeopardize the much needed positive impact expected from these sports events.

by EOS Intelligence EOS Intelligence No Comments

A Doctor under Your Skin: Wearable Medical Devices in India, Brazil, and China

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From smart glasses that allow a surgeon to operate having his patient’s medical records at sight to an intelligent contact lens that measures glucose levels of its wearer, technological innovations are changing the world as we know it. Wearable medical device market growth has been promising and the industry is expected to reach a value of US$7.8 billion by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 19% from 2015 to 2020. Since 2015, the USA and Europe have been two key markets hosting majority of users of these new technologies. However China, India, and Brazil are expected to increase its demand for wearable devices driven mainly by rapid expansion of smartphone users and an increasingly aging population. Is these emerging economies’ current set-up favorable for medical wearable to maintain a steep growth?

 

The use of wearable medical devices is skyrocketing due to aging populations, fast adoption of new trends, and greater incidence of chronic conditions around the world. An increase in health awareness across the globe and a simultaneous increase in worldwide wearable medical device shipments estimated to reach 97.6 million units by 2021, growing at a staggering CARG 108% between 2016 and 2021, might indicate the industry’s large growth potential.

Wearable Medical Devices in India, Brazil, and China-Global Outlook

Brazil, India, and China (BIC), in particular, have been registering increasing rates of chronic diseases such as heart failure, diabetes, and obesity for the past several years. Therefore, these countries have started to be considered as the next destinations to focus on in search for high growth-potential wearable medical devices markets.

Wearable Medical Devices in India, Brazil, and China - BIC Markets Are Attractive

Regardless of the fact that wearable medical devices are thriving in the USA and Europe, in countries such as Brazil, India, and China, these devices are bound to face challenges that could translate into major roadblocks for the market to grow. For instance, although wearable medical devices have proved to be a significant aid when monitoring and preventing illnesses, these are not yet considered an essential product for healthcare consumers. Consequently, BIC buyers, who tend to also be highly price sensitive, may refrain from purchasing such solutions if the retail price is high in comparison to their purchasing capabilities. As a result, this behavior may lead to a stalling sales volume in these markets and, subsequently, a slowdown in the wearable medical market growth.

Wearable Medical Devices in India, Brazil, and China - Successful in BIC

In addition, the growth of wearable medical technologies in BIC is challenged by deficient regulatory frameworks with regards to categorizing and supervising such devices for their import and commercialization in each market. Currently, regulatory frameworks are mostly outdated and do not include specific category for wearable devices with proper security measures. Moreover, as these wearables are battery-operated, improper testing due to lack of regulation can affect their safety as well as may reduce the trust consumers need to develop in order to accept and use the device. Further, this inadequate regulatory scenario may drive away potential market players (including key providers).

Wearable Medical Devices in India, Brazil, and China - Regulatory Frameworks

 

Wearable Medical Devices in India, Brazil, and China - Challenges

EOS Perspective

Global wearable medical device market is witnessing a steep growth driven mainly by changes in demographic profiles of many populations and a growing incidence of chronic conditions. In developed economies, wearable medical technology is experiencing high adoption rates and its role in the healthcare sectors is strengthening, mainly because physicians already use such solutions during consultations, whether to monitor, diagnose, or treat a patient. In emerging economies such as Brazil, India, and China, wearable medical technology has even more room to continue expanding, however, current scenarios in these countries may partially impede this growth.

Some of the key issues in these markets include the problem of import regulations unfitted for wearable medical devices, and this seems to be an important issue which needs to be sorted out in the short term to avoid driving potential players and manufacturers away from BIC markets. At the same time, the high retail price makes the wearable devices unaffordable for a large percentage of the population causing low rate of adoption among patients, and hindering medical wearables’ market growth.

Further, the fact that healthcare providers are not planning to include such devices in public health insurance schemes and reimburse the cost of wearable devices as part of their health plans, lowers the chance of this technology reaching higher number of consumers. This limited accessibility to wearable medical devices in BIC markets may result in low consumer’s awareness about their benefits, or even their existence.

Local governments should reform and adapt their import regulations to fit the wearable medical devices characteristics, allowing a better flow of these products to enter the countries without risking human health. At the same time, for wearable medical devices to healthily grow in these promising and widely populated markets, manufacturers and retailers should aim to lower a wearable device retail price. A way to achieve this could be by adding wearable devices to private health care plans (and encouraging public health insurers to do the same) – especially for chro
nic diseases patients and people over 60 years old. This will most likely allow consumers to purchase such a device at a lower retail price or rely on their healthcare reimbursement policies.

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